Already inside the gate: the company is specified into someone else's next wave, and the wave has not yet shipped
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if the transcript describes a situation where Impinj has already been chosen/designed into another organization's future product/program, and that wave hasn't arrived yet, and it's large relative to Impinj. Let's examine the transcript. Key points: - Chris Diorio mentions "visionary European retailer" self-checkout and loss-prevention deployment. They contributed strong Q4 gateway revenue. They expect this project to deliver strong Q1 revenue and step down as deployment phase approaches completion. They anticipate future opportunities with this retailer at other brands and geographies. This sounds like an ongoing project, not necessarily a future wave that hasn't arrived. It's already shipping. - "Asia based global retailer's self-checkout deployment also generated meaningful fourth-quarter revenue." That's already happening. - "In supply chain and logistics, we continue to expect the second large North American end user to both continue their system deployment and drive large endpoint IC volumes in 2023 and beyond." This is a continuation, not a new wave. - They talk about "record backlog" and "pent-up demand" but that's about their own supply constraints. - They mention "we anticipate significant endpoint IC volume growth in 2023" but that's general. - They talk about "Impinj M780 and M781" new products, but that's their own. - They talk about "Impinj Core3D Antenna" etc. - They mention "authenticity" as a future opportunity, but it's early. - They talk about "we will participate in conferences" etc. The question is: Does management describe that the company has ALREADY BEEN CHOSEN, SPECIFIED, QUALIFIED, DESIGNED IN, OR OTHERWISE LOCKED INTO POSITION INSIDE ANOTHER ORGANIZATION'S FUTURE PRODUCT, PROGRAM, PLATFORM, BUILD-OUT, OR STANDARD OPERATING PLAN — such that when that outside party's own next wave of activity arrives, this company's volume arrives with it automatically — AND does management convey that this position is secured today while the wave itself has not yet shipped, launched, ramped, or begun at scale? We need to find a specific instance where Impinj is already inside someone else's next thing, and that next thing hasn't arrived yet. Look at the visionary European retailer: They are deploying now. They have already shipped. The wave is already happening.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-05 | C+ |
| CLGN | CollPlant Biotechnologies Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-04-04 | F |
| EMKR | EMCORE Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2023-12-12 | C+ |
| AIRG | Airgain, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-09 | F |
| EVGO | EVgo, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| CUBI | Customers Bancorp, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-26 | C+ |
| WYY | WidePoint Corporation | Q3 2016 | 2016-11-09 | D |
| THRM | Gentherm Incorporated | Q2 2016 | 2016-07-28 | C+ |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
| SPR | Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | D |
CUBI · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will come automatically when ...NO The transcript describes a white-label partnership with T-Mobile where BankMobile provides services under T-Mobile's brand, with deposits expected to start in the next year after the launch. However, this does not meet the criteria for a secured position inside T-Mobile's next product or program. The language focuses on a partnership relationship that is still being launched, rather than a design win or qualification already embedded in T-Mobile's future offering. Management refers to it as an "expected white label partnership" and "working on" the launch, indicating it is not yet locked in as part of T-Mobile's committed plan.
EMKR · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will come automatically when ...NO The transcript describes an agreement with Kratos for Inertial Navigation Systems to be included in the XQ58 Valkyrie drone, with the Air Force planning to acquire at least 1,000 units. However, this is framed as an announcement of a new agreement rather than a secured, locked-in position already designed 100% into the platform with volume guaranteed.
NC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will arrive automatically whe...