Already inside the gate: the company is specified into someone else's next wave, and the wave has not yet shipped
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2022 call → NOWe need answer YES/NO based on transcript. Need determine if management describes already chosen/designed into another organization's future product/program/platform, wave not yet arrived, position large relative, preparing. Let's parse transcript. Company Zevia beverage. They discuss distribution gains, new products, pricing. Key: "In Q1, almost 250,000 incremental households purchased Zevia in a Club store. More than two-thirds of Zevia buying households were new to purchasing the soda category in the channel emphasizing Zevia’s strategic value to the retailer." That's not exactly designed into another's future product. They talk about "Performance in math was solid in Q1 with the bigger news headline in April with 13,000 new points of distribution driven largely by moving from five flavors to a brand blocked 12 flavors, and moving from six packs to a cardboard wrapped eight pack in the CSP aisle of one of the two major players nationwide. A few aisles down, this retailer has also expanded from two to four of our kids flavors and the other top mass retailer has also newly taken on four of our kids flavors, penetrating a new portion of 1,500 stores. Results from these step changes in the mass channel will be forthcoming in Q2 in the balance of your results and will open up further opportunity as 3,500 mass merchandiser stores have yet to sell Zevia. We await fall resets to open new opportunities there, based on strong velocity in our existing footprint." This sounds like they have secured distribution at retailers, but is that "inside someone else's next thing"? The question asks: "company has ALREADY BEEN CHOSEN, SPECIFIED, QUALIFIED, DESIGNED IN, OR OTHERWISE LOCKED INTO POSITION INSIDE ANOTHER ORGANIZATION'S FUTURE PRODUCT, PROGRAM, PLATFORM, BUILD-OUT, OR STANDARD OPERATING PLAN — such that when that outside party's own next wave of activity arrives, this company's volume arrives with it automatically". Here, they have been placed in retail stores, but that's ordinary distribution? They have new distribution at mass retailers, but they still need to sell to consumers. The wave is not yet arrived? They say results from step changes will be forthcoming in Q2. But is that a secured position inside a larger party's next act? It's more like they got shelf space at retailers. The retailer's "next wave" is not a product/program; it's just ongoing retail.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-05 | C+ |
| CLGN | CollPlant Biotechnologies Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-04-04 | F |
| EMKR | EMCORE Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2023-12-12 | C+ |
| AIRG | Airgain, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-09 | F |
| EVGO | EVgo, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| CUBI | Customers Bancorp, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-26 | C+ |
| WYY | WidePoint Corporation | Q3 2016 | 2016-11-09 | D |
| THRM | Gentherm Incorporated | Q2 2016 | 2016-07-28 | C+ |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
| SPR | Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | D |
CUBI · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will come automatically when ...NO The transcript describes a white-label partnership with T-Mobile where BankMobile provides services under T-Mobile's brand, with deposits expected to start in the next year after the launch. However, this does not meet the criteria for a secured position inside T-Mobile's next product or program. The language focuses on a partnership relationship that is still being launched, rather than a design win or qualification already embedded in T-Mobile's future offering. Management refers to it as an "expected white label partnership" and "working on" the launch, indicating it is not yet locked in as part of T-Mobile's committed plan.
EMKR · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will come automatically when ...NO The transcript describes an agreement with Kratos for Inertial Navigation Systems to be included in the XQ58 Valkyrie drone, with the Air Force planning to acquire at least 1,000 units. However, this is framed as an announcement of a new agreement rather than a secured, locked-in position already designed 100% into the platform with volume guaranteed.
NC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will arrive automatically whe...