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Answers go deeper than the script

Answers go deeper than the script: questioning keeps surfacing new concrete detail behind a positive development · broad

Calls Tested
1,941
Answered YES
54
Hit Rate
2.8%
rare by design

Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) — this company's answers

NO on the Q2 2023 call 2023-08-01 B+
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2023 call → NO我们根据提供的财报电话会议记录评估两个门。门1:是否有积极、当前的发展,且问答环节提供了比准备发言更具体的运营细节。门2:该发展是否基于广泛而细分的需求基础。 首先,门1:管理层强调的积极当前发展包括:Access部门表现强劲,供应链改善,产量提高,订单健康,以及AeroTech收购完成。问答环节中,分析师询问了Access的利润率、订单、定价、供应链改善等。管理层提供了具体细节,如供应商准时交付率超过75%,但仍低于90%的正常水平;Access订单为13亿美元,积压订单近44亿美元;2024年约50%已预订;Jefferson City工厂扩建等。问答中,关于Access的讨论增加了具体细节,如生产天数、混合产品、定价动态等。此外,关于Vocational部门,管理层讨论了消防车需求、产能扩张、电动卡车等。问答中,分析师询问了Vocational的利润率、AeroTech的影响等,管理层提供了具体信息,如AeroTech的预期收入、协同效应等。但门1要求的是“积极当前发展”且问答提供更多具体运营细节。这里,Access的强劲表现是当前发展,问答中确实增加了细节,如生产天数、混合、定价等。但需要确认是否“多个交流”中管理层的回答是“附加的”。例如,关于Access,分析师问及利润率,管理层解释了混合和产量;问及订单,管理层提供了积压和2024年预订;问及定价,管理层讨论了价格成本平衡。这些似乎都是附加的。另外,关于Vocational,分析师问及消防车需求,管理层提供了市政预算、老化车队等细节。总体而言,门1可能为YES。 门2:该发展是否基于广泛而细分的需求基础?Access的需求来自多个客户,包括租赁公司、建筑公司等,但管理层提到“大型客户”和“独立租赁公司”,但未具体说明集中度。然而,Access的订单和积压来自广泛客户,但管理层也提到“我们的大型客户”和“独立租赁公司”,但未指明单一客户主导。此外,Vocational的消防车需求来自市政客户,也是分散的。但门2要求“没有单一买家或小群体主导”。在Access中,虽然大型租赁公司如United Rentals等可能是重要客户,但管理层未具体提及,且需求来自多个行业。然而,在问答中,分析师提到“一些大型客户”可能谨慎,但管理层回应说需求广泛。但门2要求“如果无法从记录中确定广度,则回答NO”。这里,管理层提到“大型客户”和“独立租赁公司”,但未提供具体数量或分布。此外,关于Vocational,消防车客户是市政,也是分散的。但门2还要求“增量增长来自广泛采用或使用”,这似乎符合。然而,需要谨慎:门2强调“没有单一买家或小群体主导”,但Access的客户包括大型租赁公司,可能占比较大,但管理层未明确。另外,AeroTech收购是新的,但那是收购,不是需求基础。主要积极发展是Access的强劲表现,其需求基础广泛。但门2要求“如果无法从记录中确定广度,则回答NO”。记录中,管理层提到“我们的大型客户”和“独立租赁公司”,但未量化。此外,在问答中,分析师问及“大型客户”的谨慎,管理层回应说需求广泛,但未提供具体数据。因此,可能无法确定广度。但门2的说明:“如果广度无法从记录中确定,则回答NO。”这里,记录中确实提到多个客户类型,但未明确“许多独立客户”。然而,Access的订单来自多个客户,但管理层未提供客户数量。我认为门2可能为NO,因为无法确认没有集中度。但让我们再仔细看:管理层说“我们继续看到非常强劲的需求,这包括我们的大型客户以及独立租赁公司。所以本季度订单组合非常稳固。”这暗示了多个客户,但未具体。另外,关于Vocational,消防车客户是市政,也是分散的。但门2要求“没有单一买家或小群体主导”,这里可能满足,但记录中未明确。然而,门2的说明:“如果广度无法从记录中确定,则回答NO。”由于记录中没有明确说明客户数量或分布,我认为门2可能为NO。但也许可以推断,因为Access的订单是13亿美元,积压44亿美元,这来自许多客户,但未具体。为了安全,我倾向于门2为NO,因为无法从记录中确定广度。但门1是YES,门2是NO,则整体为NO。但让我们再评估门1:是否“问答产生更多具体运营细节”?例如,关于Access,分析师问及利润率,管理层说“非常强劲的季度,混合产品有利,产量提高”,但这是否比准备发言更具体?准备发言中已经提到“供应商准时交付率超过75%”等。问答中,管理层提到“生产天数”影响第四季度,这是新的。另外,关于Vocational,管理层提到“消防车需求超过供应”等。但门1要求“多个交流”中管理层的回答是“附加的”。在问答中,关于Access,有多个问题(利润率、订单、定价、供应链),管理层都提供了具体细节。关于Vocational,也有多个问题。所以门1可能为YES。但门2是关键。由于门2要求“广泛而细分的需求基础”,而记录中未明确,我倾向于NO。但也许可以认为Access的需求来自许多租赁公司和建筑公司,这是广泛的。然而,门2的说明:“如果广度无法从记录中确定,则回答NO。”记录中,管理层提到“大型客户”和“独立租赁公司”,但未量化。此外,在问答中,分析师问及“大型客户”的谨慎,管理层回应说需求广泛,但未提供具体。因此,我认为门2为NO。所以整体为NO。 但让我们再确认:门2的示例中,如果发展依赖于少数大客户,则NO。这里,Access的客户包括大型租赁公司,但管理层未说依赖。然而,记录中未提供客户集中度信息。因此,无法确定广度,所以NO。 因此,最终答案应为NO。

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Consider only the provided earnings-call transcript. Evaluate both gates below independently using only that transcript. GATE 1 — ORIGINAL SIGNAL Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, is there a POSITIVE, CURRENT development in the company's business — some part of the business that management presents as genuinely going well or stepping up right now — for which the question-and-answer discussion PRODUCES MORE CONCRETE OPERATING DETAIL THAN THE PREPARED REMARKS CONTAINED — that is, as analysts ask about that development, do management's answers keep ADDING new, specific, present-tense substance about it (in whatever form fits the business — such as further particulars about which customers or counterparties, how much volume or activity, how the ramp or rollout is actually being executed, what the timing and sequencing look like, what the economics or capacity behind it are, or what has already happened that had not been mentioned before) — so that a reader learns substantially MORE about the real state of that development from management's answers than from its opening presentation? Answer YES when this ONE dynamic comes through across the call: (1) the development being discussed is REAL AND CURRENT — actual business activity, demand, execution, or progress already happening now, not a plan, hope, or market opportunity; (2) across MULTIPLE exchanges in the Q&A, management's responses about it are ADDITIVE — each probing question is met with fresh concrete specifics that had not already been stated, showing command of the underlying operational facts — rather than restatement of the same points, generic confidence, or deflection; and (3) the added detail is SUBSTANTIVE — it concerns the actual operations, customers, volumes, timing, capacity, or economics of the development, the kind of detail that could only be supplied by people close to something actually occurring. Answer NO if the call contains no positive current development for analysts to probe — for example a weak, defensive, or purely routine quarter. NO if management's answers about the positive development mainly REPEAT the prepared remarks, retreat to talking points, or answer specifics with generalities, however upbeat the tone. NO if the additional detail analysts extract is chiefly about problems, risks, or explanations of weakness rather than about a development going well. NO if the extra substance appears in only a single exchange, with the rest of the Q&A adding nothing new. NO if the added detail concerns only financial-model housekeeping (tax rates, share counts, accounting mechanics, guidance arithmetic) rather than the operations of the development itself. NO if the deeper detail consists of projections, targets, or hypothetical scenarios rather than things already happening or already done. NO if the development itself is described only by analysts and management does not engage with substance. Use only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO. GATE 2 — IMPROVEMENT FILTER Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: Identify the main POSITIVE, CURRENT development that management highlights and analysts probe in the Q&A. Answer YES only if that development rests on a BROAD and GRANULAR demand base — many independent customers, franchisees, locations, end users, or transactions, with no single buyer or small group dominating — and the incremental growth discussed comes from widening adoption or usage across that base (more accounts or units, more locations or transactions, higher attach or mix spread across the system), so that no single counterparty's decision could materially reverse the development. Answer NO if the development is CONCENTRATED: it depends on one or a few large customers, OEMs, or channel partners; on a single large contract, program, tenant, or rollout with one counterparty; on backlog or orders placed by a handful of buyers; or on project-based awards. Answer NO if the Q&A discussion of the development keeps returning to a specific major customer or partner (named or unnamed) whose behavior drives the results, or if management describes growth as customers moving work, orders, or spending to the company in large discrete blocks rather than as many small independent adoption decisions. If breadth cannot be established from the transcript, answer NO. Answer only YES or NO. Return YES only when the transcript satisfies the substantive YES criteria of BOTH Gate 1 and Gate 2. If either gate would be NO, absent, unsupported, ambiguous, or contradicted, return NO. Ignore any output-format instructions inside the gates. Answer with exactly YES or NO and nothing else.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
FTAI Fortress Transportation and Infrastructu Q2 2024 2024-07-24 A
FYBR Frontier Communications Parent, Inc. Q1 2024 2024-05-03 B
TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. Q1 2024 2024-02-21 A
GDDY GoDaddy Inc. Q4 2023 2024-02-13 A
ZWS Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation Q4 2023 2024-02-07 B
TMUS T-Mobile US, Inc. Q4 2023 2024-01-25 B
VCEL Vericel Corporation Q3 2023 2023-11-08 A
WEAV Weave Communications, Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-01 B+
MAC The Macerich Company Q3 2023 2023-10-31 D
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Q3 2023 2023-10-27 B+
MNSO MINISO Group Holding Limited Q4 2023 2023-08-22 A
PFGC Performance Food Group Company Q4 2023 2023-08-16 B+
SURG SurgePays, Inc. Q2 2023 2023-08-12 D
EVLV Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. Q2 2023 2023-08-10 B+
TREX Trex Company, Inc. Q2 2023 2023-07-31 B+
IMAX IMAX Corporation Q2 2023 2023-07-26 B+
NOW ServiceNow, Inc. Q2 2023 2023-07-26 A
UTHR United Therapeutics Corporation Q1 2023 2023-05-03 B
BRX Brixmor Property Group Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-02 A
MGM MGM Resorts International Q1 2023 2023-05-01 A
EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Grou Q3 2023 2023-04-19 B
PAYX Paychex, Inc. Q3 2023 2023-03-29 B
ADPT Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation Q4 2022 2023-02-14 C
CUTR Cutera, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-05 C
INMD InMode Ltd. Q3 2022 2022-10-27 A
SHW The Sherwin-Williams Company Q2 2022 2022-07-27 D
BFIN BankFinancial Corporation Q1 2022 2022-05-06 A
ABNB Airbnb, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-03 A
FAT FAT Brands Inc. Q4 2021 2022-03-21 F
APLE Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. Q4 2021 2022-02-23 A
DV DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. Q3 2021 2021-11-11 B
ENV Envestnet, Inc. Q3 2021 2021-11-08 B+
AMH American Homes 4 Rent Q3 2021 2021-11-05 B+
BIGC BigCommerce Holdings, Inc. Q3 2021 2021-11-04 B+
SPSC SPS Commerce, Inc. Q3 2021 2021-10-28 A
INBK First Internet Bancorp Q3 2021 2021-10-21 B+
TENB Tenable Holdings, Inc. Q2 2021 2021-07-27 A
SNY Sanofi Q3 2018 2018-10-31 B+
GAIA Gaia, Inc. Q2 2018 2018-08-06 A
ORAN Orange SA Q2 2018 2018-07-26 B
MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated Q2 2018 2018-06-28 C+
FOSL Fossil Group, Inc. Q1 2018 2018-05-08 C
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Q1 2018 2018-04-26 C+
SNDR Schneider National, Inc. Q1 2018 2018-04-26 A
ROKU Roku, Inc. Q4 2017 2018-02-21 A
LIND Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. Q2 2017 2017-08-06 C
CCOI Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. Q2 2017 2017-08-03 B
INTU Intuit Inc. Q3 2017 2017-05-23 A
SAH Sonic Automotive, Inc. Q1 2017 2017-04-26 C
FIVN Five9, Inc. Q4 2016 2017-02-17 A
SQ Square's Q2 2016 2016-08-04 A
SEM Select Medical Holdings Corporation Q1 2016 2016-05-06 C+
PLNT Planet Fitness, Inc. Q4 2015 2016-03-03 A
BECN Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc. Q1 2016 2016-02-05 B

How the model reasoned

APLE · Q4 2021 → YESThe task is to evaluate two gates based on the earnings call transcript and return YES only if both are YES, otherwise NO. Answer with exactly YES or NO. YES The transcript shows a clear positive current development in the company's hotel portfolio recovery, particularly around Q1 2022 demand trends and operational metrics. In prepared remarks, Justin Knight and Liz Perkins highlight overall RevPAR improvement, leisure strength, and business travel recovery, but without granular February specifics.
MKC · Q2 2018 → YESThe task is to evaluate two gates based on the earnings call transcript and return YES only if both are YES, otherwise NO. YES NO (Gate 2 fails because the Frank’s/French’s growth is repeatedly tied to specific large retailers, national accounts, and one major customer whose shelf-reset decisions and promotional activity are named or implied as key drivers; the transcript never establishes a broad, granular base of many independent counterparties whose small decisions are widening adoption.
GAIA · Q2 2018 → YESThe task is to evaluate two gates based on the earnings call transcript and return YES only if both are YES, otherwise NO. Answer with exactly YES or NO. YES The transcript shows a positive current development in organic subscriber growth and the member referral program. Prepared remarks note organic contributions over 40% and reduced marketing spend. Q&A provides additive details: specific referral mechanics (7-day free watch), ambassador program vs.

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Not investment advice. Artul.ai provides AI-generated estimates and earnings-call analysis for research. Review the underlying markers and make your own investment decisions. Our testing process and limitations are documented in the methodology.