Better business coming in than going out: management describes the quality of new intake visibly exceeding what it is re
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2021 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that the business being taken in right now is of visibly higher quality than the business it is finishing or replacing, and that this turnover is real and current, with improvement arriving as the old rolls off. Let's examine the transcript. The call is about Empire State Realty Trust, a REIT. Key topics: leasing, Observatory, GBG bankruptcy, etc. Management discusses leasing: "In the second quarter, we signed 35 new and renewal leases totaling approximately 191,000 square feet... Most leasing activity in our Manhattan office portfolio was for spaces under 10,000 square feet. And in fact, 15 of the 25 Manhattan office leases signed in this quarter were for prebuilt office space." They mention that smaller suites will be quickest to lease, and larger lease transactions will likely appear later. They also discuss rental rates: "During the second quarter, rental rates on new leases signed at our Manhattan office properties decreased by 1.7% on a cash basis compared to the prior escalated rents. Spreads on renewal leases at our Manhattan office properties were down 4.3%." So new leases are at lower rates than expiring ones. That suggests the incoming business is at lower economics, not higher. They also say "net effective rents in our Manhattan office portfolio today versus pre covered levels have declined 10% to 20% on a comparable space basis." So they are taking in business at lower rents. That is not a quality contrast in favor of new business. They also discuss the Observatory: "Second quarter attendance was at approximately 17% of 2019 comparable attendance... We have made no change to our hypothetical Observatory admissions... We believe that we can maintain our current Observatory operating cost structure up to approximately 60% of our 2019 attendance. With more international inbound tourists, we believe we will see growth from lower-margin passes and online travel agent tourists, which will lower our per caps." So they expect per caps to decline as international tourists return, implying that current domestic visitors are higher margin? Actually they say "higher retail website driven local visitor mix" and "we have seen a higher retail website driven local visitor mix, followed by a ramp-up of regional and national sourced to travel.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASB | Associated Banc-Corp | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | A |
| GIII | G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. | Q4 2024 | 2024-03-14 | C |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| BRX | Brixmor Property Group Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-02 | A |
| OEC | Orion Engineered Carbons S.A. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-17 | B+ |
| BBD | Banco Bradesco S.A. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-09 | D |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| KTB | Kontoor Brands, Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | A |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| EHTH | eHealth, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | F |
| ADSK | Autodesk, Inc. | Q3 2019 | 2018-11-20 | A |
| GECC | Great Elm Capital Corporation | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-13 | B |
| CUBI | Customers Bancorp, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-26 | C+ |
| T | AT&T Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-24 | C+ |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-03 | B+ |
| MKC | McCormick & Company, Incorporated | Q2 2018 | 2018-06-28 | C+ |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-26 | B+ |
| ATI | Allegheny Technologies Incorporated | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | B |
| HSTM | HealthStream, Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-24 | C |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-18 | B+ |
| BLKB | Blackbaud, Inc. | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-02 | B+ |
HSTM · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the business they're taking in right now is of visibly higher quality than the business they're finishing or letting run off. YES The transcript shows management explicitly contrasting incoming business against outgoing: - Patient Experience: "Existing clients also continue to convert from a phone modality to email and SMS text surveying modality... This conversion trend to continue... expected to have a positive impact... on patient experience margins." (lower price, higher margin shift already happening) - Provider Solutions: "the move from installed software sales to software as service sales... challenge revenue growth... but not profitability growth" and "backlog of unimplemented customers... significantly reduced" - Laerdal/HeartCode: "the new product we believe is right now based on contracts.
GFS · Q3 2021 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the business they're taking in right now is of visibly higher quality than the business they're finishing or letting run off. YES The transcript shows management explicitly contrasting the incoming business with the outgoing: compute revenue is declining "as expected" due to customers shifting to smaller nodes, while "newer high-margin customer designs" are ramping in 2H 2022 to offset it. They tie this directly to mix improvement from "d differentiated solutions become a larger portion" and "feature-rich" platforms (FDX, RF SOI, silicon photonics) growing while feature-rich CMOS is flat or down. LTAs signed now carry "pricing improvements" baked in for 2022+, with new agreements committing future capacity at those better terms.
CYBR · Q3 2021 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the new business they're taking in is of higher quality than the old business they're replacing, and that as the old rolls off, results will impro...YES Management explicitly contrasts the incoming subscription business (new logos, SaaS bookings, Privileged Cloud, EPM) as higher-quality than the outgoing perpetual license business it is replacing. They describe it as delivering “faster type of value,” “higher lifetime value over time,” and “more users and more products faster ,” while noting that the current revenue and profitability headwind from the mix shift is “obscuring the P&L” and that results will improve once the transition completes.