Cash cost of the wait: management is funding a defined waiting period whose end is already scheduled
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2018 call → NOWe need to determine if the company is currently living through a defined waiting period it is paying for out of its own pocket, with a specific near-dated end event. Key points from transcript: - They have a SurVeil drug-coated balloon agreement with Abbott. They receive revenue from Abbott for the distribution and development agreement. They recognized $1.7 million in Q3, and expect $4-4.5 million for the year. So they are already earning revenue from that agreement. Not a waiting period with no revenue. - They are investing in R&D for new products, but that's normal investment. - They acquired Embolitech thrombectomy technology, paid $4.5 million, and are developing it. They expect to submit for regulatory approval in first half of calendar 2020. That's more than a year away (calendar 2020 is about 1.5 years from now). Also, they are paying for development now, but that's typical R&D investment, not a defined waiting period with a specific near-dated event. - They have products like .014 and .018 balloons, microcatheter, etc. They are seeking commercialization partners. They are in discussions, but no specific near-dated event. - They mention "we are on track to become a leading and enduring medical device innovator" etc. The question asks: Does management describe the company as CURRENTLY LIVING THROUGH A DEFINED WAITING PERIOD IT IS PAYING FOR OUT OF ITS OWN POCKET—that is, does management convey that the company is presently carrying real, ongoing cash or earnings cost for something whose benefit has not arrived yet, AND that the end of that waiting period is a specific, near-dated event the company can already see and is already working toward? We need all three conditions: 1. Company is paying now for something not yet earning. 2. Management speaks as though the wait is the company's main current work. 3. The far side is a specific, near-dated event (within roughly a year) that depends on work already in motion. Looking at the transcript, the company is generating revenue from Abbott for SurVeil, so that's not a waiting period. They are investing in R&D for new products, but that's normal. The Embolitech acquisition is a development project, but the regulatory submission is in first half of calendar 2020, which is more than a year away (since we are in August 2018, calendar 2020 is about 1.5 years).
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOPN | Kopin Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-14 | C+ |
| LILA | Liberty Latin America Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-23 | C |
| SBS | Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-10 | C+ |
| QTRX | Quanterix Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-07 | B |
| APPS | Digital Turbine, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2023-08-08 | D |
| PRPH | ProPhase Labs, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-11 | F |
| CDE | Coeur Mining, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-11 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| FLL | Full House Resorts, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | B |
| EHTH | eHealth, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | F |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| YUM | Yum! Brands, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | C |
| IBTX | Independent Bank Group, Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-24 | A |
| FLEX | Flex Ltd. | Q1 2018 | 2017-07-28 | F |
| DAN | Dana Incorporated | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-02 | B |
SBS · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as currently living through a defined waiting period it's paying for out of its own pocket. YES The transcript shows management describing the company as currently bearing real, ongoing cash costs (salaries, consulting, transition work) for the IDP/restructuring program whose benefits (full expense reduction, shared-services center operational) are not yet realized. The far side is a specific, near-dated event: full 3.7% staff reduction and shared-services center operational by mid-2024 (July 2024 for full benefit), with the program already in motion and on schedule. Management frames this as the main current work, not a setback, and treats the costs as self-funded. This meets all three conditions.
EHTH · Q2 2021 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as currently living through a defined waiting period it is paying for out of its own pocket. YES The transcript shows management describing the company as currently living through a defined waiting period for the AEP, paying for it out of its own pocket through heavy investments in internal agents and quality initiatives. They hired agents early, many still in training with lower productivity, and are bearing the cost of additional training and customer service expansion in Q3. This is framed as a chosen investment to improve enrollment quality and prepare for the fourth-quarter AEP, not an apology or external issue.
YUM · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as currently living through a defined waiting period it is paying for out of its own pocket. YES The transcript shows management describing a clear, self-funded transition cost tied to the refranchising effort. They explicitly call out the “timing mismatch between G&A savings and refranchising” as one of the four items weighing on Q2 core operating profit, and they quantify the full-year headwind at 6 7 percentage points. This is presented as a real, ongoing drag on current results while they complete the shift to 98 % franchised by year-end 2018 and reach the 1.7 % G&A run-rate target in 2019.