Cheap-to-serve incremental business: management says the next tranche of volume costs it almost nothing extra
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business is unusually low because they have already built and paid for capacity, and that additional business of that kind is already arriving. From the transcript: James Beckwith mentions expansion into Bay Area with addition of seasoned team. Organic growth with new deposit accounts. They have a pipeline. They mention "we are well positioned to continue to endure and succeed." They talk about expense management, efficiency ratio 42%. They mention "managed expenses" and "deliver value." They talk about loan growth, deposit growth. They mention "we have a reliable core deposit base." They talk about "our ability to grow deposit accounts supports our differentiated customer-centric model." They mention "we continue to execute our organic growth and disciplined business practices." Heather Luck: "Noninterest expense grew by $36,000 in the three months ended September 30th as compared to the three months ended June 30th, primarily due to a $0.5 million increase in salaries and employee benefits, which was partially offset by decreases..." So expenses are relatively flat. They talk about hiring more people in Bay Area, but that's ongoing. They mention "we've got a pretty substantial pipeline" for deposits. They expect deposit growth to exceed loan growth. But do they convey that the next unit of business is cheap because they have already built capacity? They have a branch network, but they are expanding. They are hiring more people. They mention "we've got a little ways to go in the Bay Area" and "targeting probably four to five more people." So they are still building out. That suggests they are not at capacity; they are adding resources. They also mention "we are starting to grow our C&I book" and "we do have a pretty significant effort going on" - so they are investing. The question asks: Does management convey that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low? That they have already built and paid for the base, and additional business is arriving now. From the transcript, they talk about expense management, but they are still hiring. They mention "we've got a pretty substantial pipeline" but that's future. They mention "we expect our deposit growth to exceed our loan growth in the fourth quarter" - that's expectation, not current.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGLS | Tecnoglass Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-08 | A |
| ADPT | Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-14 | C+ |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| HFWA | Heritage Financial Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-27 | A |
| AMC | AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-09 | D |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | C+ |
| UMH | UMH Properties, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-02 | C+ |
| WES | Western Midstream Partners, LP | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-31 | D |
| SATS | EchoStar Corporation | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | C+ |
| ATI | Allegheny Technologies Incorporated | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | B |
SATS · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...NO The transcript shows management describing high growth with significant upfront acquisition costs, fixed costs leading to margin expansion as growth slows, and beams filling up faster than expected on Jupiter-2 (implying approaching capacity limits rather than excess capacity). However, there is no clear indication of an already-built, underutilized base where additional business is arriving on resources already paid for without new capacity investment. Instead, they highlight ongoing build-out (Jupiter-3 in 2021) and potential slowdowns, which aligns with the "NO" criteria for being near limits or in a growth cycle requiring new spending.
ATI · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES Management describes the HPMC segment’s leverage from “additional volume across our asset base” and “utilization increases across our isothermal and conventional forging assets” that already generated “significant incremental margin growth,” with next-generation jet engine sales up 65% and now at 48% of total jet engine sales. They state they are “well positioned both in capability and capacity to continue to benefit from these trends well into the future” after noting the fourth press is coming on stream in a couple of years.
UMH · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this situation: the company already owns 3,600 vacant sites (most acquired) plus 6,215 rental homes (93.3% occupied), so the next increment of rental-home business can be served on infrastructure already paid for and in place. They explicitly call the rental program “the most efficient way to fill the vacant sites,” and they are already adding 608 homes this year on track for 800, with Same-Property occupancy rising to 83.2% and expense ratios improving as occupancy climbs.