Cheap-to-serve incremental business: management says the next tranche of volume costs it almost nothing extra
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2024 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, with additional business already arriving, and that this is a present-tense reality. Key points from the transcript: - John Lindsay mentions that the company has experienced increases in operational expenses due to labor costs, consumables, and inflation. But also mentions "cost acceleration on equipment related to running H&P's FlexRig fleet harder than ever before" due to more complex well designs, longer laterals, etc. This suggests that serving more business might actually increase costs, not decrease. - However, there is a mention of "recommissioning expenses associated with putting active churn rigs into new contracts as opposed to idle rigs" in Q2 cost decline. That implies that some costs are lower when rigs are already active. - The international expansion: they are converting idle U.S. Super-Spec rigs for Middle East work. That means they have idle rigs already built and paid for, and they are converting them. That is a form of using existing assets. But they are spending capital on conversion (30-35 million for seven rigs). So there is incremental capital spending, but it's less than new builds. - The question is whether management conveys that the next unit of business is cheap to serve because the base is already built. They have idle rigs, but they are spending to convert them. Also, they are adding rigs in the U.S. but that involves recommissioning costs. - They mention that direct margins are stable and they expect to add rigs. But do they say that incremental business is cheap? They talk about "operating leverage" but not explicitly. - They mention that they have a fleet of rigs, and they are using idle ones for international. That is a form of already-paid-for capacity. But they are also investing in conversions. - The key is whether they convey that the cost of serving the next unit is unusually low. They do mention that they have idle rigs that they are putting to work, which is cheaper than building new. But they also have costs for conversion. - Also, they mention that they expect to add 3-8 rigs in Q2, and they already have 154 rigs. They are adding rigs, so volume is increasing.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGLS | Tecnoglass Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-08 | A |
| ADPT | Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-14 | C+ |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| HFWA | Heritage Financial Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-27 | A |
| AMC | AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-09 | D |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | C+ |
| UMH | UMH Properties, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-02 | C+ |
| WES | Western Midstream Partners, LP | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-31 | D |
| SATS | EchoStar Corporation | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | C+ |
| ATI | Allegheny Technologies Incorporated | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | B |
SATS · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...NO The transcript shows management describing high growth with significant upfront acquisition costs, fixed costs leading to margin expansion as growth slows, and beams filling up faster than expected on Jupiter-2 (implying approaching capacity limits rather than excess capacity). However, there is no clear indication of an already-built, underutilized base where additional business is arriving on resources already paid for without new capacity investment. Instead, they highlight ongoing build-out (Jupiter-3 in 2021) and potential slowdowns, which aligns with the "NO" criteria for being near limits or in a growth cycle requiring new spending.
ATI · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES Management describes the HPMC segment’s leverage from “additional volume across our asset base” and “utilization increases across our isothermal and conventional forging assets” that already generated “significant incremental margin growth,” with next-generation jet engine sales up 65% and now at 48% of total jet engine sales. They state they are “well positioned both in capability and capacity to continue to benefit from these trends well into the future” after noting the fourth press is coming on stream in a couple of years.
UMH · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this situation: the company already owns 3,600 vacant sites (most acquired) plus 6,215 rental homes (93.3% occupied), so the next increment of rental-home business can be served on infrastructure already paid for and in place. They explicitly call the rental program “the most efficient way to fill the vacant sites,” and they are already adding 608 homes this year on track for 800, with Same-Property occupancy rising to 83.2% and expense ratios improving as occupancy climbs.