Cheap-to-serve incremental business: management says the next tranche of volume costs it almost nothing extra
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2015 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business is unusually low because resources are already built and paid for, and that additional business is already arriving. We need to look for statements about capacity, fixed costs, scalability, etc., and evidence of increasing volume. From the transcript: - Ana Botin mentions "we have a corporate center which enables us to attract talent, share best practices, best-in-class information and control systems and maximize the value of our global brand." That's not about incremental cost. - She talks about digital transformation: "In 2015 the number of digital customers grew by 17%. That is 2.5 million more than the year before." That's volume arriving, but is there a statement about low incremental cost? She says "It enables us also to know our customers better, to offer them better services and to improve the customer experience." Not directly about cost. - She mentions "we are a sector benchmark with a cost/income at 47.6%, more or less stable year on year." That suggests efficiency but not necessarily that incremental business is cheap. - José Antonio talks about cost control: "we are growing the cost base with 1% excluding inflation and perimeter." That's low cost growth relative to volume growth? He says "we were able to grow loan book by 6%... customer funds 7%." So volume growing faster than costs. That could imply operating leverage. But is it explicitly about incremental business being cheap? He says "we have a significant physical infrastructure at the same time you are investing in digital challenge." That suggests they have both physical and digital, but not that they have excess capacity. - He mentions "we are making significant investment for regulatory purposes and at the same time for the utilization, at the same time we need to save on the traditional business in order to keep our best-in-class efficiency ratio." That suggests they are investing, not that they have already built. - Ana Botin says "we have a corporate center that adds value in control and compliance. We're sharing some of the investments in terms of our regulatory projects, but we believe there's more to do on the revenue side." Not about incremental cost.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGLS | Tecnoglass Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-08 | A |
| ADPT | Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-14 | C+ |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| HFWA | Heritage Financial Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-27 | A |
| AMC | AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-09 | D |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | C+ |
| UMH | UMH Properties, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-02 | C+ |
| WES | Western Midstream Partners, LP | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-31 | D |
| SATS | EchoStar Corporation | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | C+ |
| ATI | Allegheny Technologies Incorporated | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | B |
SATS · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...NO The transcript shows management describing high growth with significant upfront acquisition costs, fixed costs leading to margin expansion as growth slows, and beams filling up faster than expected on Jupiter-2 (implying approaching capacity limits rather than excess capacity). However, there is no clear indication of an already-built, underutilized base where additional business is arriving on resources already paid for without new capacity investment. Instead, they highlight ongoing build-out (Jupiter-3 in 2021) and potential slowdowns, which aligns with the "NO" criteria for being near limits or in a growth cycle requiring new spending.
ATI · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES Management describes the HPMC segment’s leverage from “additional volume across our asset base” and “utilization increases across our isothermal and conventional forging assets” that already generated “significant incremental margin growth,” with next-generation jet engine sales up 65% and now at 48% of total jet engine sales. They state they are “well positioned both in capability and capacity to continue to benefit from these trends well into the future” after noting the fourth press is coming on stream in a couple of years.
UMH · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys that the cost of serving the next increment of business has become unusually low, meaning additional volume can be delivered with already built and pai...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this situation: the company already owns 3,600 vacant sites (most acquired) plus 6,215 rental homes (93.3% occupied), so the next increment of rental-home business can be served on infrastructure already paid for and in place. They explicitly call the rental program “the most efficient way to fill the vacant sites,” and they are already adding 608 homes this year on track for 800, with Same-Property occupancy rising to 83.2% and expense ratios improving as occupancy climbs.