Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management lays out a timetable of specific conversions that are already secured or in motion, with timing attached, and presents this as the forward story. Key points from transcript: - La Preciosa: land use agreement signed, environmental permit submitted, awaiting permits. They plan to start hauling stockpiles to mill, processing in Q2. Fresh ore possibly by end of year. But this is contingent on permits. The stockpiles are already there, they are moving them. They say "we will be processing that hopefully in Q2" - that's a specific item already in motion (hauling stockpiles). But is it secured? They have the material, they are moving it. They have the agreement. However, the environmental permit is still pending for the mine development. The stockpiles are already at surface, so they can process them without new permits? They said "we will be processing that hopefully in Q2" - that's a specific timetable. But is it a "conversion" that steps the company beyond current level? It's incremental. They also mention cost reductions, but that's not a conversion. - Oxide Tailings project: PFS completed, but next steps are community engagement and environmental impact studies. Not yet secured. - The main forward story: They talk about La Preciosa as top priority, but the actual contributions are not yet in the numbers. They say "we have not budgeted for any fresh production from La Preciosa" - so it's not secured. The stockpiles are a small contribution. - They also mention 2024 guidance of 2.5-2.8 million oz, mostly from Avino. That's just normal operations, not a new conversion. - They mention cost improvements, but that's not a conversion. - They mention "we are well into the first quarter of 2024, and our current focus is moving forward with our plans for the Gloria and Abundancia veins at La Preciosa, with the community engagement ongoing as we ready ourselves to begin development work." That's still in planning. - They say "we will be processing that hopefully in Q2" for stockpiles. That is a specific item with timing. But is it already secured? They have the material, they have the mill, they have the agreement. The only thing is they are still awaiting permits for the mine itself, but the stockpiles are already at surface. So processing stockpiles is not contingent on permits. So that is a secured item.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESEA | Euroseas Ltd. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-15 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| FLL | Full House Resorts, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | B |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies Inc. | Q2 2016 | 2016-05-03 | A |
CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.