Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2022 call → NOThe question asks whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions—identified pieces of business already secured or in motion, each attached to an at-least-approximate time frame—so the forward story reads as a schedule of things turning on. Let me scan the transcript for such specifics. Kevin Hogan mentions: - Corebridge Forward: "$232 million of exit run rate savings" contracted, "more than 50% of our stated goal of $400 million of run rate savings over the next three years." Elias says "We expect that approximately $130 million will earn in, in 2023" with an offset from incremental costs. This is a specific item with timing (2023 earn-in). - Blackstone partnership: "$8 billion of new transactions" executed in 2022, average gross yield 6.5%, Q4 purchase yield 7.2%. This is already executed, but is it a forward timetable? It's about assets already originated, contributing to base yield going forward. Elias says "we expect the benefit of higher new money rates and our partnership with Blackstone to continue to emerge during future quarters as more of the investment portfolio is reinvested at higher yields and earns in." That's a forward contribution but not a specific dated schedule of items. - BlackRock Aladdin platform: "We expect to be live on this platform in 2024." That's a specific date but it's a platform migration, not a revenue conversion. - Separation from AIG: "The bulk of the remaining work is centered around separating shared applications which should largely be completed by the end of 2023 or early '24." Again, a project completion, not a revenue conversion. - LDTI: "When we begin reporting under LDTI in 2023" - that's a reporting change, not a business conversion. - SECURE 2.0: "We anticipate a positive impact" - that's a hope, not a secured item with timing. - Pension risk transfer: "we closed pension risk transfer transactions totaling $1.3 billion in the fourth quarter" and "we continue to see a robust pipeline" - the closed ones are already in results; the pipeline is not secured. - GICs: "We also remain confident in our ability to become a more consistent issuer of GICs in the future, subject to market conditions." - contingent, not secured.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESEA | Euroseas Ltd. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-15 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| FLL | Full House Resorts, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | B |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies Inc. | Q2 2016 | 2016-05-03 | A |
CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.