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Conversion calendar in hand

Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured

Calls Tested
443
Answered YES
6
Hit Rate
1.4%
rare by design

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) — this company's answers

NO on the Q3 2021 call 2021-11-09 C
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2021 call → NOThe question asks whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions—identified pieces of business already secured or in motion, each with timing—so the forward story reads as a schedule of things turning on. Let me scan the transcript for specific items with timing: 1. New Mexico lease: "Our new lease agreement with the State of New Mexico for our 596-bed Northwest New Mexico Correctional Center that we announced in September. The new lease has an initial term of three years but includes automatic extension options that could extend the lease term through 2041. The new lease commenced on November 1st and we successfully transitioned operations of the facility to the state. So, you will see that property reclassified from our safety segment to the property segment during the fourth quarter." — This is already commenced, reclassified in Q4. It's a real item, already in motion. 2. Arizona procurement: "We continue to pursue an opportunity with the State of Arizona which has an active procurement for up to 2,700-beds... We have responded to the procurement and believe the State Department of Corrections Rehabilitation and Reentry is poised to move quickly on the procurement." — This is still being pursued, not yet awarded. "We are optimistic in a contract award near the end of the year" — contingent on award, not secured. 3. West Tennessee: "we responded to a request for proposal to utilize the West Tennessee facility and we remain optimistic in signing a new contract." — still being negotiated, not secured. "we could experience a reduction in earnings in the fourth quarter of up to $0.02 per share" — this is about a potential loss, not a secured conversion. 4. Leavenworth: "We are in discussions with other potential government partners to utilize the Leavenworth facility in the event that we are unable to reach a solution" — contingent, not secured. 5. Hawaii: "we anticipate a competitive procurement in 2022" — future, not secured. 6. Staffing: "we are leaning way forward, on increasing our staffing levels in anticipation of higher utilization rates" — anticipation, not secured. So the only concrete secured item is the New Mexico lease, which commenced November 1 and is reclassified in Q4. That's one item.

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, when management talks about the company's NEXT FOUR OR SO QUARTERS, does it lay out a TIMETABLE OF SPECIFIC CONVERSIONS \u2014 identified pieces of business that are ALREADY SECURED OR ALREADY IN MOTION, each attached to an at-least-approximate time frame in which it starts contributing \u2014 so that the forward story reads as a schedule of things turning on, rather than as hopes about demand?\n\nAnswer YES when management's own words convey BOTH of the following as one coherent forward account, in whatever form fits the business:\n\n(1) THE ITEMS ON THE TIMETABLE ARE ALREADY REAL. Management identifies concrete business whose existence is no longer in question \u2014 already won, signed, awarded, ordered, booked, contracted, built, launched, closed, or already ramping \u2014 in whatever form fits the industry: contracted work or orders scheduled for delivery; a facility, capacity, product, service, or location recently completed or opening on a stated timetable and now filling; customers or programs already signed that go live or scale on a described schedule; an acquisition or expansion already closed whose contribution phases in; committed volumes stepping up on agreed dates. One substantial item or several smaller ones together both count. Items still being pursued, negotiated, piloted without commitment, or awaiting approvals, financing, or customer decisions do NOT count toward the timetable.\n\n(2) MANAGEMENT ATTACHES TIMING AND TREATS THE SCHEDULE AS THE FORWARD STORY. Management gives each identified item an at-least-rough time anchor within roughly the coming year (this quarter, next quarter, by mid-year, second half, a named month or season) and presents working through this sequence \u2014 starting, ramping, delivering, onboarding, filling \u2014 as the main driver of where the company's results go from here, conveying directly or plainly in substance that the period just reported does not yet meaningfully reflect these contributions, so today's numbers describe the company before the scheduled conversions land.\n\nAnswer NO if the forward discussion rests mainly on demand strength, market conditions, pipeline, opportunities being pursued, or general optimism, with no dated schedule of secured items. NO if the timetable consists of routine, ordinary-course activity at the company's usual scale \u2014 the normal cadence of openings, orders, or seasonal work it always has \u2014 that management does not present as stepping the company beyond its current level. NO if the named items are contingent on approvals, financing, negotiations, or decisions not yet made, or if the only timing given is vague ('over time', 'in the coming years', 'eventually'). NO if the scheduled items' contributions are already substantially reflected in the reported results. NO if management is chiefly explaining delays, slippage, cancellations, or problems with a previously described schedule. NO if the schedule is assembled only in an analyst's question or model that management does not itself adopt.\n\nUse only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
ESEA Euroseas Ltd. Q4 2022 2023-02-15 C+
SOL ReneSola Ltd Q3 2022 2022-12-01 C+
FLL Full House Resorts, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-07 B
FAT FAT Brands Inc. Q4 2021 2022-03-21 F
CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation Q3 2017 2017-11-10 A
ESE ESCO Technologies Inc. Q2 2016 2016-05-03 A

How the model reasoned

CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.

More from the question bank

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Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our methodology.