Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2023 call → NOThe question asks whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions—identified pieces of business already secured or in motion, each with timing—so the forward story reads as a schedule of things turning on. Let me examine the transcript for what management says about the next four or so quarters. Key forward-looking statements from Jeff Rittichier: 1. "In the current quarter, we expect that the book-to-bill will recover and believe that Q2 will be stronger yet." (Q2 likely means fiscal Q2, i.e., March quarter) 2. "In October, we announced an agreement with Kratos to provide Inertial Navigation Systems for four of their high-performance drones. In particular, the XQ58 Valkyrie contains multiple EMCORE systems." — This is a secured agreement. 3. "The Navy also directly awarded us additional business for the Mark 48 torpedo and we have been notified that we will need to nearly double production in FY '24." — Awarded, with timing (FY '24). 4. "We are expecting significant upside business for our EN-300 products the return of orders for MTSBs and expect to make our first low rate of initial production shipments of an advanced targeting system this quarter, depending on the receipt of circuit boards that are late by a month." — This quarter (December quarter) for the advanced targeting system. 5. "During the quarter, we received additional production orders for precision guided munitions program and expect this to transition into a growing yearly order pattern." — Received orders. 6. "Business from the Ukraine is also expected to expand." 7. "We are nearing completion of preproduction units for Raytheon's advanced EO/IR pods. We expect to complete the current phase of our MMS program in June, along with several smaller programs over the next six to 12 months." 8. "This year, we are expecting non-recurring engineering funding from our customers to be at least $7 million, of which 70% is already booked." — Booked. 9. On TAIMU cancellation: "we believe that upside from our other unrelated programs from other product families can substantially offset the loss of TAIMU in FY '24. We have three high confidence programs alone, which could offset at least $10 million out of the approximately $14 million in TAIMU revenue that was expected in FY '24." 10.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESEA | Euroseas Ltd. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-15 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| FLL | Full House Resorts, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | B |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies Inc. | Q2 2016 | 2016-05-03 | A |
CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.