Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management lays out a timetable of specific conversions that are already secured or in motion, each with timing, and presents that schedule as the forward story. Let's review the transcript for forward-looking statements about the next four quarters. Key points from the call: - They discuss various projects: Lake Charles LNG (but that's contingent on DOE approval, new application, etc., so not secured), Nederland expansion (FID'd, expected in service mid-2025, but that's beyond next four quarters? Actually mid-2025 is more than a year away from Aug 2023, so not within roughly the coming year), Marcus Hook optimization (still pursuing FID), Frac 8 at Mont Belvieu (mechanically complete in next couple of weeks, full service around Sept 1), Grey Wolf and Bear plants (already in service), Gulf Run (already in service, but they discuss adding capacity via compression, but that's in discussions, not secured), carbon capture (still in progress), etc. - They mention that they expect 2023 adjusted EBITDA to be $13.1-13.4 billion, which is a slight tightening. They say "our guidance does not assume the same upside benefits from pricing and spreads that we experienced in 2022." So they are not presenting a schedule of new contributions. - They talk about growth capital expenditures of ~$2 billion for 2023, and long-term run rate of $2-3 billion. But that's not a timetable of specific conversions. - They mention that a significant amount of 2023 growth capital spend is comprised of projects already online or expected to be online before end of year, including Frac 8, Bear plant, new treating capacity. But these are already online or coming online very soon. Are these presented as stepping the company beyond current level? They say "at very attractive returns" but they don't give specific timing for contributions beyond saying they are online or expected to be online before end of year. Also, these are already reflected in the guidance? They say "we now expect our 2023 adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $13.1 billion to $13.4 billion" which is for the full year, so these projects are part of that. - They also mention the Lotus acquisition closed in May, and integration is going as planned, with synergies in excess of forecast. But that's already closed and contributing.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESEA | Euroseas Ltd. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-15 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| FLL | Full House Resorts, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | B |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies Inc. | Q2 2016 | 2016-05-03 | A |
CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.