Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management lays out a timetable of specific conversions that are already secured or in motion, with timing, and presents that as the forward story. Let's review the transcript. Management discusses several things: - Wallboard demand: "The underlying demand for our products is strengthening. Our volumes in gypsum wallboard could have been been even stronger this quarter if homes that were started could have been completed. Supply chain issues for other products slowed the completion of these homes and admittedly, slowed some of our product distribution. This portends well for the quarters ahead as this backlog is worked through." This is about demand and backlog, but not specific secured items with timing. - Cement: "all of our plants are virtually sold out and so we expect pricing will be our greatest profit lever for cement in the most immediate quarters ahead." That's about pricing, not specific conversions. - PLC (limestone cement): "Every one of our cement plants have now completed production trials in product performance testing. As a result of these trials, all of our cement plants have evaluated capital investment requirements to reach what we have calculated to be the target limestone substitution levels. These capital investments are a varying degree of complexity, and will be completed over the coming months, or years, depending on the location. Regarding our customer acceptance, we have field trials underway with our customer base and are working with DOTs in all of our relevant market areas. So far in FY2022, we have produced and sold over 100,000 tons of this eco-friendly product out of four of our facilities. We expect increased sales in this -- of this product in FY2023." This is about a product that is being introduced, but the timing is "over the coming months, or years" and it's not a specific schedule of conversions. It's more about ongoing investment and trials. Not a timetable of secured items. - Share repurchases: "We repurchased 1.2 million shares of our common stock for a total cash return to our shareholders of nearly $200 million during this quarter." That's not forward. - Infrastructure spend: "Infrastructure spend is on an upswing, aided by federal initiatives and state and local budgets in our markets are generally strong." That's general.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESEA | Euroseas Ltd. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-15 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| FLL | Full House Resorts, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | B |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies Inc. | Q2 2016 | 2016-05-03 | A |
CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.