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Conversion calendar in hand

Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured

Calls Tested
443
Answered YES
6
Hit Rate
1.4%
rare by design

The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) — this company's answers

NO on the Q2 2016 call 2016-08-02 B+
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2016 call → NOThe question asks whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions—identified pieces of business already secured or in motion, each with timing—so the forward story reads as a schedule of things turning on. Let me examine the transcript for what management says about forward quarters. Key forward-looking statements: - Brian Evans gives guidance for Q3 and Q4 2016, with revenue ranges, AFFO, EPS. This is routine guidance. - Construction revenue for Ravenhall: Q3 ~$84M, Q4 ~$71M. Ravenhall is under construction, scheduled for completion late 2017 (fourth quarter of 2017 per George Zoley). So Ravenhall is a secured project (25-year contract, $88M investment), but it's not contributing until late 2017—beyond the "next four or so quarters" (which would be Q3 2016 through Q2 2017 roughly). Actually the question says "next four or so quarters" from the call date (August 2016), so through mid-2017. Ravenhall completes in Q4 2017, so it's beyond that window. - The activations mentioned (Great Plains, North Lake, Adelanto, Karnes, Kingman, ISAP) are already done and reflected in results—these are past activations, not forward schedule. - Dave Donahue discusses opportunities: CAR 16 rebid (decision expected Q3/Q4 2016), ICE Houston 1,000-bed (decision Q3 2016), Chicago/New Jersey (monitoring), state opportunities (Ohio, Michigan, Hamilton County), Australia Grafton (proposals due November), John Morony (proposals due February 2017). These are all being pursued, not secured. - Ann Schlarb discusses opportunities totaling $30M potential, but "pursuing" them. So the forward discussion is mostly about opportunities being pursued, bids, RFPs, decisions expected. None of these are "already secured" items with a timetable for contribution. The only secured item is Ravenhall, but it's under construction and won't contribute until late 2017, beyond the near-term window, and its construction revenue is already in guidance (which is just pass-through, no margin). The guidance for Q3/Q4 is just routine quarterly guidance, not a schedule of new conversions. The past activations are already reflected in results—management says "our robust year-over-year growth has been driven by the activation of several important projects" which are already done.

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, when management talks about the company's NEXT FOUR OR SO QUARTERS, does it lay out a TIMETABLE OF SPECIFIC CONVERSIONS \u2014 identified pieces of business that are ALREADY SECURED OR ALREADY IN MOTION, each attached to an at-least-approximate time frame in which it starts contributing \u2014 so that the forward story reads as a schedule of things turning on, rather than as hopes about demand?\n\nAnswer YES when management's own words convey BOTH of the following as one coherent forward account, in whatever form fits the business:\n\n(1) THE ITEMS ON THE TIMETABLE ARE ALREADY REAL. Management identifies concrete business whose existence is no longer in question \u2014 already won, signed, awarded, ordered, booked, contracted, built, launched, closed, or already ramping \u2014 in whatever form fits the industry: contracted work or orders scheduled for delivery; a facility, capacity, product, service, or location recently completed or opening on a stated timetable and now filling; customers or programs already signed that go live or scale on a described schedule; an acquisition or expansion already closed whose contribution phases in; committed volumes stepping up on agreed dates. One substantial item or several smaller ones together both count. Items still being pursued, negotiated, piloted without commitment, or awaiting approvals, financing, or customer decisions do NOT count toward the timetable.\n\n(2) MANAGEMENT ATTACHES TIMING AND TREATS THE SCHEDULE AS THE FORWARD STORY. Management gives each identified item an at-least-rough time anchor within roughly the coming year (this quarter, next quarter, by mid-year, second half, a named month or season) and presents working through this sequence \u2014 starting, ramping, delivering, onboarding, filling \u2014 as the main driver of where the company's results go from here, conveying directly or plainly in substance that the period just reported does not yet meaningfully reflect these contributions, so today's numbers describe the company before the scheduled conversions land.\n\nAnswer NO if the forward discussion rests mainly on demand strength, market conditions, pipeline, opportunities being pursued, or general optimism, with no dated schedule of secured items. NO if the timetable consists of routine, ordinary-course activity at the company's usual scale \u2014 the normal cadence of openings, orders, or seasonal work it always has \u2014 that management does not present as stepping the company beyond its current level. NO if the named items are contingent on approvals, financing, negotiations, or decisions not yet made, or if the only timing given is vague ('over time', 'in the coming years', 'eventually'). NO if the scheduled items' contributions are already substantially reflected in the reported results. NO if management is chiefly explaining delays, slippage, cancellations, or problems with a previously described schedule. NO if the schedule is assembled only in an analyst's question or model that management does not itself adopt.\n\nUse only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
ESEA Euroseas Ltd. Q4 2022 2023-02-15 C+
SOL ReneSola Ltd Q3 2022 2022-12-01 C+
FLL Full House Resorts, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-07 B
FAT FAT Brands Inc. Q4 2021 2022-03-21 F
CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation Q3 2017 2017-11-10 A
ESE ESCO Technologies Inc. Q2 2016 2016-05-03 A

How the model reasoned

CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.

More from the question bank

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Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our methodology.