Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management lays out a timetable of specific conversions already secured or in motion, each with timing, and presents that schedule as the forward story. Let's analyze the transcript. The question is about the next four or so quarters. Management discusses various items: Tivity move-out, backfill customers, development deliveries, acquisitions, etc. But are these "already real" and attached to timing, and does management present them as the forward story? Key points: - Tivity move-out at end of February (263k sq ft) - that's a negative, not a conversion. - Backfill customers for Tivity space - lease commences early 2024. That's a conversion but timing is early 2024, which is beyond the next four quarters? The question says "next four or so quarters" - early 2024 is within that if we consider Q1 2024? But the call is Feb 2023, so next four quarters would be Q1 2023 to Q4 2023? Actually "next four or so quarters" likely means the coming year. Early 2024 is about a year away. But the backfill is already signed, so it's real. However, management mentions it as a negative impact on 2023 occupancy, and the backfill starts in 2024. They don't present a schedule of conversions as the main driver. - Development deliveries: 2827 Peachtree, GlenLake III, Granite Park VI deliver in 2023. They are under construction, so they are real. But they are not yet stabilized; they have pre-leasing. Management gives stabilization dates (Q1 2025, etc.) but that's beyond the next four quarters. The deliveries themselves are in 2023, but the contribution to FFO is not immediate. They mention these as part of the pipeline, but not as a schedule of conversions that will drive results in the next four quarters. - Acquisitions: McKinney & Olive acquired in Q4 2022, already contributing. That's already reflected. - Midtown East development announced, but not yet started, so not a conversion. - The main forward story is about interest rates, OpEx, occupancy decline due to Tivity, and then recovery later. They don't lay out a timetable of secured items that will step up results. Management talks about leasing activity, pipeline, but not a specific schedule of already-secured conversions with timing that they present as the main driver.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESEA | Euroseas Ltd. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-15 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| FLL | Full House Resorts, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | B |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies Inc. | Q2 2016 | 2016-05-03 | A |
CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.