Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2018 call → NOThe question asks whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions — identified pieces of business that are already secured or in motion, each attached to an at-least-approximate time frame — so the forward story reads as a schedule of things turning on. Let me scan the transcript for what management says about the forward quarters. Key forward-looking statements: - NovaSeq shipments: "no change to our expectations for 330 to 350 NovaSeq shipments this year" — this is a full-year expectation, not a timetable of specific secured items. - NovaSeq upgrade cycle: "we continue to believe that the NovaSeq upgrade cycle will span multiple years" — this is a general belief, not a schedule of secured conversions. - S1 flow cell: "officially launched at AGBT in mid-February... expected to ramp throughout 2018" — this is a product launch, ramping, but is it a "secured" item? It's a product they launched, but the ramp is about demand, not a contracted schedule. - iSeq: "expect to scale shipments midyear" — this is a product launch timing, but again, it's about shipping a product, not a secured conversion of business. - Oncology collaborations with Loxo and BMS: "Milestone payments associated with our recently announced oncology collaborations. These will be included in sequencing and other revenue." — These are collaborations announced, but the milestones are future and the timing is not specified. Management says "we haven't recognized any milestones or contributions from them. We will going forward as these start to take off." No specific timing given. - Harvard Pilgrim NIPT study: "the test runs about 18 months when we should think about as getting to completion and get that data... really it's the back half of next year. We should start to see the data come back from that study." — This is a study, not a secured revenue conversion. - Netherlands program: "is in its earlier stages of its ramp and is expected to contribute to a VeriSeq sales more than doubling in 2018." — This is a program ramping, but no specific timetable of secured conversions. - Genomics England: "now halfway through its 100,000 genome target and hopes to complete sequencing all 100,000 genomes this year" — this is an ongoing program, not a new secured conversion with a timetable.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESEA | Euroseas Ltd. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-15 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| FLL | Full House Resorts, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | B |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies Inc. | Q2 2016 | 2016-05-03 | A |
CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.