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Conversion calendar in hand

Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured

Calls Tested
443
Answered YES
6
Hit Rate
1.4%
rare by design

National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) — this company's answers

NO on the Q1 2016 call 2016-04-22 C+
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2016 call → NOWe need to determine if the management's forward-looking statements in the transcript lay out a timetable of specific conversions—already secured or in motion—with timing attached, and present that schedule as the forward story. Let's examine the transcript. The call is about Q1 2016 results. Management discusses loan growth, energy exposure, expenses, etc. Key forward-looking statements: - Brian Lilly: "we have not included any interest rate increases in our guidance." "Total loans ended the quarter at $2.6 billion and grew slightly from year end as new fundings were offset by higher levels of payments and pay downs." "we look for 2016 to continue to provide good growth opportunities." "we reiterate our prior guidance as we look for our relationship banking model to deliver high single digit transaction deposit growth" etc. - On loan growth: "we have built nice new business pipelines that give us confidence in our ability to deliver on our originations goal to exceed $1 billion this year and to support a full year total loan growth of 15% to 20%." That's pipeline, not secured. - On expenses: "we are reiterating the full-year guidance in the low $140 million range, with an expected increase in the second quarter to around $36 million as April’s annual compensation actions and the timing of certain expenses like marketing catch up." That's just expense timing. - On M&A: "we have been active in pursuing a number of opportunities to further leverage our excess capital through M&A and the lift out of teams, but do not have a transaction to share at this point." So no secured M&A. - On lift outs: Tim Laney says "we have a number of, we think, very interesting lift out opportunities." But that's still opportunities, not secured. - On energy: Rick Newfield discusses energy portfolio, but that's about credit quality, not forward conversions. - On loan growth: "we did have a fair amount of business slide from first quarter to second quarter. I think we’ll learn a lot about ourselves here in the second quarter." That's about timing of existing pipeline, but not specific secured items. - On originations: "C&I originations had been tracking in the trailing four quarters at call it $123 million to $136 million in C&I originations. That declined to $59 million.

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, when management talks about the company's NEXT FOUR OR SO QUARTERS, does it lay out a TIMETABLE OF SPECIFIC CONVERSIONS \u2014 identified pieces of business that are ALREADY SECURED OR ALREADY IN MOTION, each attached to an at-least-approximate time frame in which it starts contributing \u2014 so that the forward story reads as a schedule of things turning on, rather than as hopes about demand?\n\nAnswer YES when management's own words convey BOTH of the following as one coherent forward account, in whatever form fits the business:\n\n(1) THE ITEMS ON THE TIMETABLE ARE ALREADY REAL. Management identifies concrete business whose existence is no longer in question \u2014 already won, signed, awarded, ordered, booked, contracted, built, launched, closed, or already ramping \u2014 in whatever form fits the industry: contracted work or orders scheduled for delivery; a facility, capacity, product, service, or location recently completed or opening on a stated timetable and now filling; customers or programs already signed that go live or scale on a described schedule; an acquisition or expansion already closed whose contribution phases in; committed volumes stepping up on agreed dates. One substantial item or several smaller ones together both count. Items still being pursued, negotiated, piloted without commitment, or awaiting approvals, financing, or customer decisions do NOT count toward the timetable.\n\n(2) MANAGEMENT ATTACHES TIMING AND TREATS THE SCHEDULE AS THE FORWARD STORY. Management gives each identified item an at-least-rough time anchor within roughly the coming year (this quarter, next quarter, by mid-year, second half, a named month or season) and presents working through this sequence \u2014 starting, ramping, delivering, onboarding, filling \u2014 as the main driver of where the company's results go from here, conveying directly or plainly in substance that the period just reported does not yet meaningfully reflect these contributions, so today's numbers describe the company before the scheduled conversions land.\n\nAnswer NO if the forward discussion rests mainly on demand strength, market conditions, pipeline, opportunities being pursued, or general optimism, with no dated schedule of secured items. NO if the timetable consists of routine, ordinary-course activity at the company's usual scale \u2014 the normal cadence of openings, orders, or seasonal work it always has \u2014 that management does not present as stepping the company beyond its current level. NO if the named items are contingent on approvals, financing, negotiations, or decisions not yet made, or if the only timing given is vague ('over time', 'in the coming years', 'eventually'). NO if the scheduled items' contributions are already substantially reflected in the reported results. NO if management is chiefly explaining delays, slippage, cancellations, or problems with a previously described schedule. NO if the schedule is assembled only in an analyst's question or model that management does not itself adopt.\n\nUse only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
ESEA Euroseas Ltd. Q4 2022 2023-02-15 C+
SOL ReneSola Ltd Q3 2022 2022-12-01 C+
FLL Full House Resorts, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-07 B
FAT FAT Brands Inc. Q4 2021 2022-03-21 F
CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation Q3 2017 2017-11-10 A
ESE ESCO Technologies Inc. Q2 2016 2016-05-03 A

How the model reasoned

CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.

More from the question bank

Betting on a customer they cannot yet nameGround-level proof points accumulatingWinning more per swing than they used to — aFresh order-of-magnitude reference changeThis quarter could not have been described lOutside actors already movingAll questions →
Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our methodology.