Escape velocity out of a small base: management describes the business compounding at a rate its own size cannot absorb
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes the company as being at a point where the rate of accumulation is the dominant fact, with multiples and repeated doublings, and treating the company as still small. Let's analyze the transcript. Key points from Jamie Welch's remarks: - "we saw a ramp-up in activity and volumes across our system." - "we expect 70% of our new wells connected to the system in 2023 to occur during the 6-month window from March through August." - "Today, gathered and processed natural gas volumes are at all-time record highs. In April, we processed an average of 1.52 billion cubic feet per day, representing a 21% increase over the equivalent fourth quarter 2022 volumes." - "We exceeded our 2023 exit rate guidance of 1.5 billion cubic feet per day of processed volumes in April and currently expect to exit 2023 at 1.6 billion cubic feet per day of processed volume. This new exit rate represents a year-on-year increase of over 25%." - "Our exit rate for 2023 is now well over $900 million of annualized EBITDA and our EBITDA step change from 2023 to 2024 remains intact." - "We are continuing to evaluate portfolio monetization opportunities, particularly our stake in Gulf Coast Express pipeline as a means to accelerate the achievement of our capital allocation priorities." - "In April, we placed the Diamond Cryo expansion in service. The project was both on budget and on time. Now our installed processing capacity exceeds 2 billion cubic feet per day." - "Our gathering system expansion into Lea County, New Mexico is proceeding as planned. The project is on budget and on schedule and should be in service in January 2024, well ahead of the expected contract start date of April 1." Later in Q&A: - Jamie: "I think what has surprised us Spiro, is the outperformance is not specific to just one particular producer. We probably have almost a handful that have brought wells online in areas that are dedicated that have far exceeded type curve expectations. And we have a lot of data to look at type curves. And we've been in this basin now for 10 years. So we really think that we actually understand the nuances of the rock. But what's interesting to us, whether it's Cowen, whether it's Diamondback, we see it with PR, most recently with Caterra with -- back on their resolute acreage. The results were just were quite surprising.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DASH | DoorDash, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2021-12-01 | A |
SNOW · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Frank Slootman repeatedly frames the current state in terms of multiples of the recent past: product revenue “growing 110% year-on-year” (more than doubling), EMEA “up 174%” and Asia-Pacific “219%”, BUILD Summit registrations “three times last year’s”, Snow Day “ 23,000 registrations”, Data Marketplace “grew 41%”, stable edges “more than 130% annual increase”, Powered By Snowflake partners “growing 137% quarter-on-quarter” and product revenue from them “173% year-on-year”.
DASH · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as still sm...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly framing the business in terms of multiples of its recent past: non-restaurant selection "going from 0 nearly 3 years ago to a multibillion-dollar business that's at scale now growing fast"; grocery GOV "has doubled year-on-year"; international growth "at multiples of what we see around the world"; and new verticals accelerating from the prior quarter.
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Management repeatedly frames the current state using multiples of recent past activity: backlog more than doubled (from $5.2B to $11.