Escape velocity out of a small base: management describes the business compounding at a rate its own size cannot absorb
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2017 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes the company as being at a point where the rate of accumulation is the dominant fact, with multiples and repeated doublings, and that the base is still small. Let's analyze the transcript. Key points from Sven Lindblad's opening: "second quarter of 2017, once again, generated strong forward reservations, building on the bookings strength we delivered over the past nine months. With particular emphasis on in-year revenue production, reservations for future travel has grown nearly 40% year-to-date from the same period a year ago." That's 40% growth, not a multiple. Then: "In fact, 2018 is more solidly booked at this point, as a percentage of available revenue than 2015 was at the same point for '16, and '16 was for '17." That's a comparison, not a multiple. "Last month alone, bookings for future years travel was up nearly 50% more than July a year ago." 50% more, not a multiple. "And earlier this week, we had the highest booking day in the company's history." That's a record, not a multiple. So far, growth is described as strong, but not as multiples. The numbers are 40%, 50%, record day. That's not "several times" or "doubled" etc. Later, Craig Felenstein says: "we are currently pacing $9 million ahead of the same point a year ago despite the voyage cancellations... We are currently at 98% of our full year projected ticket revenues for 2017 versus 98% of the 2016 full year ticket revenues at the same exact time a year ago." That's not a multiple. Also: "when you look at the year-on-year bookings, year-on-year bookings are over $20 million up where they were a year ago at this point for '16, where we are for '17." That's a dollar amount increase, not a multiple. He also says: "for 2018, for next year, we are close to 50% above bookings for next year where we were for the same point for '17 a year ago." Again 50%, not a multiple. So management uses percentages like 40%, 50%, and record day. That's not "multiples" or "repeated doublings." They don't say "doubled" or "tripled" or "several times." They say "nearly 40%", "nearly 50%", "highest booking day". That's strong growth but not multiples. Also, do they treat the company as still small? They talk about expansion, new ships, but they don't explicitly say "we are still small relative to what's coming" in a way that suggests the compounding is the dominant fact.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DASH | DoorDash, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2021-12-01 | A |
SNOW · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Frank Slootman repeatedly frames the current state in terms of multiples of the recent past: product revenue “growing 110% year-on-year” (more than doubling), EMEA “up 174%” and Asia-Pacific “219%”, BUILD Summit registrations “three times last year’s”, Snow Day “ 23,000 registrations”, Data Marketplace “grew 41%”, stable edges “more than 130% annual increase”, Powered By Snowflake partners “growing 137% quarter-on-quarter” and product revenue from them “173% year-on-year”.
DASH · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as still sm...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly framing the business in terms of multiples of its recent past: non-restaurant selection "going from 0 nearly 3 years ago to a multibillion-dollar business that's at scale now growing fast"; grocery GOV "has doubled year-on-year"; international growth "at multiples of what we see around the world"; and new verticals accelerating from the prior quarter.
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Management repeatedly frames the current state using multiples of recent past activity: backlog more than doubled (from $5.2B to $11.