Escape velocity out of a small base: management describes the business compounding at a rate its own size cannot absorb
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2019 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes the company as being at a point where the rate of accumulation has become the dominant fact, using multiples of recent past, and treating the base as still small. Let's analyze the transcript. Key points from management: - Howard Lerman: "We had an amazing quarter and a really strong half to the first half of the year, highlighted by record revenues and continued growth in the mid 30% range." That's incremental, not multiples. - "Revenue grew 35% over the second quarter last year" - that's a growth rate, not a multiple. - "deferred revenue increased more than 50% versus last year" - again, percentage. - "nearly 80 new enterprise logos we won this quarter" - that's a number, not a multiple. - "we closed 60 yields that resulted in at least $1 billion of contract value" - wait, that's a typo? Actually "60 yields" might be "60 deals"? But they said "we closed 60 yields that resulted in at least $1 billion of contract value." Actually it says "we closed 60 yields" but likely "60 deals" with at least $1 million? Let's read: "During the quarter, we closed 60 yields that resulted in at least $1 billion of contract value." That seems odd. Actually it might be "60 deals" but the transcript says "60 yields" - probably a mis-transcription. But they say "at least $1 billion" - that's a large number. But they also say "That included both new logo within renewals of existing customers. Apart from the fourth quarter of last year, that’s the best quarter we’ve ever had in winning these large deals. And by way of comparison to previous second quarter, a year-ago, we had just two deals and of this size. And the year before that we didn't have any deals over $1 million." So they are comparing to previous years: two deals a year ago, none the year before. So that's a multiple: from 0 to 60? Actually they say "we closed 60 yields" - maybe it's "60 deals" with at least $1 million? But they say "at least $1 billion" - that seems too high. Possibly it's "at least $1 million" but the transcript says "billion"? Let's check: "we closed 60 yields that resulted in at least $1 billion of contract value." That would be huge. But then they say "by way of comparison to previous second quarter, a year-ago, we had just two deals and of this size." So "this size" refers to the $1 billion? That would be absurd.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DASH | DoorDash, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| SNOW | Snowflake Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2021-12-01 | A |
SNOW · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Frank Slootman repeatedly frames the current state in terms of multiples of the recent past: product revenue “growing 110% year-on-year” (more than doubling), EMEA “up 174%” and Asia-Pacific “219%”, BUILD Summit registrations “three times last year’s”, Snow Day “ 23,000 registrations”, Data Marketplace “grew 41%”, stable edges “more than 130% annual increase”, Powered By Snowflake partners “growing 137% quarter-on-quarter” and product revenue from them “173% year-on-year”.
DASH · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as still sm...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly framing the business in terms of multiples of its recent past: non-restaurant selection "going from 0 nearly 3 years ago to a multibillion-dollar business that's at scale now growing fast"; grocery GOV "has doubled year-on-year"; international growth "at multiples of what we see around the world"; and new verticals accelerating from the prior quarter.
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes the company as accumulating at a rate that's the dominant fact, using multiples or repeated doublings of its recent past, and treating the base as st...YES Management repeatedly frames the current state using multiples of recent past activity: backlog more than doubled (from $5.2B to $11.