First tranche delivered, larger tranches en route: the same engine that just produced has visibly more already scheduled
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2023 call → NOWe need answer YES or NO. Need analyze transcript. Need identify engine of new business with first tranche landed and larger tranches in motion. Let's parse. Management describes multiple business areas: RNG, Verity, ETO/LG Chem, NZ1 development, etc. Need find one where both conditions true. RNG: Northwest Iowa RNG project has been injecting since June 2022. Q2 revenue $2.9M, achieved 97% onstream, 91% uptime, annualized 355k MMBtu, expanding to 400k MMBtu expected Q4. They say "project achieved impressive year one performance" and "we are expanding project's capacity to 400,000 MMBtus per annum expected to be completed in Q4." Also "produce more than 300,000 MMBtu in 2023" and "achieved 90% of capacity already." Is this an engine? First tranche landed: RNG production and revenue in Q2. Larger tranches in motion: expansion to 400k, permanent CI approval expected 2024, profitability improve. But is the remainder larger than delivered? They are expanding from 355k to 400k, that's only ~13% increase, not larger share. Also they say "RNG plant is running incrementally positive cash flow basis even with temporary CI score... expect profitability to improve once score of minus 350 approved and capacity increases." But the delivered portion is already at 90% capacity. The continuation is not larger than what has been recognized; it's a modest expansion. So NO for RNG as larger tranches? Maybe not. Verity: "We already have SIRE with 135 million gallons per year ethanol plant. Now we have an additional ethanol partner that has signed up, has more than 100 million gallons per year." Goal to sign up additional customers. "We expect to add more companies this year." "expand Verity acres track to 100,000 acres or more. This was slowed... We just got final award notice and final contract last week... should get going soon... expect to have 100,000 acres by next season." "get very tracking carbon tracker applications working at launch. That's been done." So first tranche? They have signed up additional partner, but is that "actually delivered, shipped, completed, opened, billed, or recognized"? They have signed up customers, but revenue? They mention "provide guidance for 2024 and beyond for Verity revenue" by year-end. So Verity revenue not yet material? They have customers signed, but not necessarily delivered.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| ATAT | Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-23 | B+ |
| LINC | Lincoln Educational Services Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-06 | B+ |
| LTRX | Lantronix, Inc. | Q3 2024 | 2024-04-29 | C |
| E | Eni S.p.A. | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-24 | B+ |
| FRPH | FRP Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-07 | C+ |
| ZLAB | Zai Lab Limited | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-28 | C |
| VMI | Valmont Industries, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-22 | C |
| TBLA | Taboola.com Ltd. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-08 | B+ |
| JLL | Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | F |
| TEL | TE Connectivity Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2023-11-01 | B |
| CLNE | Clean Energy Fuels Corp. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-09 | C+ |
| LUCD | Lucid Diagnostics Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-16 | C+ |
| CEIX | CONSOL Energy Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-07 | B |
| ARE | Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-01-31 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| CDMO | Avid Bioservices, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-03-08 | B+ |
| DG | Dollar General Corporation | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-26 | A |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-20 | B+ |
| MAS | Masco Corporation | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-30 | C |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | Q1 2019 | 2018-09-13 | B+ |
| SRDX | Surmodics, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-08-06 | A |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| MGA | Magna International Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | B+ |
| SATS | EchoStar Corporation | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | C+ |
| RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-02 | C+ |
| FLEX | Flex Ltd. | Q1 2018 | 2017-07-28 | F |
| HR | Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-08 | A |
| BDN | Brandywine Realty Trust | Q1 2017 | 2017-04-21 | C+ |
| WTS | Watts Water Technologies, Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-10 | B |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-03 | C+ |
| LBTYK | Liberty Global's | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-10 | C+ |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
| MTRX | Matrix Service Company | Q3 2016 | 2016-05-05 | D |
| CLF | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | F |
| DD | DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-26 | B+ |
CDMO · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes ONE identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: NO The transcript describes the first phase of the Myford expansion as now operational and scheduling client projects, with management noting they are already utilizing the new space and that an extra $5 million is arguably in backlog attributable to it.
LINC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes ONE identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: YES The transcript identifies the new-campus expansion strategy as the engine. East Point opened in Q1 with 29 starts and $90k revenue (first tranche, concrete and delivered).
LTRX · Q3 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes one identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: a first tranche has actually landed in the just-reported period, and larger tranches...