First tranche delivered, larger tranches en route: the same engine that just produced has visibly more already scheduled
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes one identifiable engine of new business with both: (1) a first tranche actually landed in the just-reported period (Q3 fiscal 2022, ended May 31, 2022), and (2) larger tranches already in motion behind it, with the remainder larger than what's been recognized. Look for specific engines: international shipments, 4C expansion, Laurentian expansion, new product launches, etc. International: In Q3, they made $1.3M shipments to Cannatrek and Medcan in Australia. Subsequent to quarter end, another shipment to Cannatrek worth $1.8M, and this month (July) shipment to Canndoc in Israel worth $3.3M. They expect further international shipments in fiscal 2022 and are working on potential opportunities to expand into Europe. But is the continuation "already committed, scheduled, contracted, in production, ramping"? They say "we expect to make further international shipments" and "working on potential opportunities" - that's not concrete. The shipments after quarter end are already made, but those are part of the same engine? The first tranche in Q3 was $1.3M. Then after quarter end, they made $1.8M and $3.3M shipments. Those are larger than the Q3 amount? Actually $1.3M in Q3, then $1.8M + $3.3M = $5.1M after quarter end. But are those "larger tranches already in motion"? They are already shipped, so they are landed, but they are after the quarter. The question asks: "A FIRST TRANCHE HAS ACTUALLY LANDED: a real, concrete portion of that engine's business was actually delivered, shipped, completed, opened, billed, or recognized in the just-reported period" - that is Q3. So the $1.3M is the first tranche. Then "LARGER TRANCHES ARE ALREADY IN MOTION BEHIND IT: management identifies further portions of that SAME engine that are already committed, scheduled, contracted, in production, ramping, or otherwise concretely underway" - the $1.8M and $3.3M shipments are already made, so they are not "in motion" but already delivered. However, they are after the quarter, so they are future relative to the quarter. But the question says "already committed, scheduled, contracted, in production, ramping, or otherwise concretely underway" - these shipments were made, so they are concrete. But are they larger than the first tranche? Yes, $5.1M vs $1.3M.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| ATAT | Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-23 | B+ |
| LINC | Lincoln Educational Services Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-06 | B+ |
| LTRX | Lantronix, Inc. | Q3 2024 | 2024-04-29 | C |
| E | Eni S.p.A. | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-24 | B+ |
| FRPH | FRP Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-07 | C+ |
| ZLAB | Zai Lab Limited | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-28 | C |
| VMI | Valmont Industries, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-22 | C |
| TBLA | Taboola.com Ltd. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-08 | B+ |
| JLL | Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | F |
| TEL | TE Connectivity Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2023-11-01 | B |
| CLNE | Clean Energy Fuels Corp. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-09 | C+ |
| LUCD | Lucid Diagnostics Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-16 | C+ |
| CEIX | CONSOL Energy Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-07 | B |
| ARE | Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-01-31 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| CDMO | Avid Bioservices, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-03-08 | B+ |
| DG | Dollar General Corporation | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-26 | A |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-20 | B+ |
| MAS | Masco Corporation | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-30 | C |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | Q1 2019 | 2018-09-13 | B+ |
| SRDX | Surmodics, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-08-06 | A |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| MGA | Magna International Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | B+ |
| SATS | EchoStar Corporation | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | C+ |
| RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-02 | C+ |
| FLEX | Flex Ltd. | Q1 2018 | 2017-07-28 | F |
| HR | Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-08 | A |
| BDN | Brandywine Realty Trust | Q1 2017 | 2017-04-21 | C+ |
| WTS | Watts Water Technologies, Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-10 | B |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-03 | C+ |
| LBTYK | Liberty Global's | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-10 | C+ |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
| MTRX | Matrix Service Company | Q3 2016 | 2016-05-05 | D |
| CLF | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | F |
| DD | DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-26 | B+ |
CDMO · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes ONE identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: NO The transcript describes the first phase of the Myford expansion as now operational and scheduling client projects, with management noting they are already utilizing the new space and that an extra $5 million is arguably in backlog attributable to it.
LINC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes ONE identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: YES The transcript identifies the new-campus expansion strategy as the engine. East Point opened in Q1 with 29 starts and $90k revenue (first tranche, concrete and delivered).
LTRX · Q3 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes one identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: a first tranche has actually landed in the just-reported period, and larger tranches...