First tranche delivered, larger tranches en route: the same engine that just produced has visibly more already scheduled
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes one identifiable engine of new business with both: (1) a first tranche actually landed in the just-reported period (Q1 2022), and (2) larger tranches already in motion behind it, with the remainder larger than what's been delivered. Look for a specific engine. The transcript mentions several things: NIC acquisition, cloud transition, payments, specific contracts like Florida statewide payments, Utah public safety, etc. But we need one engine where both conditions are met. Consider the Florida statewide payments contract. In Q1, they had revenues from corporate filings with Department of State, which were concentrated in Q1. They said "NIC's growth was boosted by revenues under the new statewide payments contract in Florida and in particular, by revenues associated with corporate filings with the Department of State that are concentrated in the first quarter." That is a first tranche landed. But is there a larger tranche already in motion? They mention the contract is new and ramping up. But do they say that the remainder is larger? They said "there were some revenues in Q1 that are specific to Q1 around filings... that added roughly close to $6.5 million of revenue in subscriptions in Q1. And so actually accounted for a couple hundred basis points of overall growth in the quarter that really aren't expected to be there throughout the year." That suggests that the Q1 revenue is a spike, not a smaller share of a larger ongoing stream. They say it's not expected to be there throughout the year. So the continuation is not larger; it's actually a one-time seasonal spike. So that doesn't fit. Consider the NIC acquisition as a whole? But that's not a single engine; it's a whole company. The question asks for "one identifiable engine of new business" such as a specific contract, program, product, etc. Consider the cloud transition? That's a strategy, not a specific engine with tranches. Consider the sell-through opportunities? They said "we doubled the number of sell-through opportunities in our pipeline." That's pipeline, not landed. Consider the US eDirect acquisition? They just acquired it, but no mention of first tranche landed. Consider the Utah public safety deal? That's a license deal, not a recurring engine with tranches. Consider the flips (on-prem to cloud conversions).
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| ATAT | Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-23 | B+ |
| LINC | Lincoln Educational Services Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-06 | B+ |
| LTRX | Lantronix, Inc. | Q3 2024 | 2024-04-29 | C |
| E | Eni S.p.A. | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-24 | B+ |
| FRPH | FRP Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-07 | C+ |
| ZLAB | Zai Lab Limited | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-28 | C |
| VMI | Valmont Industries, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-22 | C |
| TBLA | Taboola.com Ltd. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-08 | B+ |
| JLL | Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | F |
| TEL | TE Connectivity Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2023-11-01 | B |
| CLNE | Clean Energy Fuels Corp. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-09 | C+ |
| LUCD | Lucid Diagnostics Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-16 | C+ |
| CEIX | CONSOL Energy Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-07 | B |
| ARE | Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-01-31 | C+ |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| CDMO | Avid Bioservices, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-03-08 | B+ |
| DG | Dollar General Corporation | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-26 | A |
| DOV | Dover Corporation | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-20 | B+ |
| MAS | Masco Corporation | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-30 | C |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | Q1 2019 | 2018-09-13 | B+ |
| SRDX | Surmodics, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-08-06 | A |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| MGA | Magna International Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | B+ |
| SATS | EchoStar Corporation | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-10 | C+ |
| RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-02 | C+ |
| FLEX | Flex Ltd. | Q1 2018 | 2017-07-28 | F |
| HR | Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-08 | A |
| BDN | Brandywine Realty Trust | Q1 2017 | 2017-04-21 | C+ |
| WTS | Watts Water Technologies, Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-10 | B |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-03 | C+ |
| LBTYK | Liberty Global's | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-10 | C+ |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
| MTRX | Matrix Service Company | Q3 2016 | 2016-05-05 | D |
| CLF | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | F |
| DD | DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-26 | B+ |
CDMO · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes ONE identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: NO The transcript describes the first phase of the Myford expansion as now operational and scheduling client projects, with management noting they are already utilizing the new space and that an extra $5 million is arguably in backlog attributable to it.
LINC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes ONE identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: YES The transcript identifies the new-campus expansion strategy as the engine. East Point opened in Q1 with 29 starts and $90k revenue (first tranche, concrete and delivered).
LTRX · Q3 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes one identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: a first tranche has actually landed in the just-reported period, and larger tranches...