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First tranche delivered, larger tranches en route

First tranche delivered, larger tranches en route: the same engine that just produced has visibly more already scheduled

Calls Tested
952
Answered YES
37
Hit Rate
3.9%
rare by design

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) — this company's answers

NO on the Q2 2018 call 2018-07-27 C
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2018 call → NO我们根据提供的财报电话会议记录,寻找一个具体的业务引擎,其中既有已实际落地的首批部分,又有更大规模的部分已在推进中。管理层明确表示已交付的是较小份额,而大部分还在后面。 检查记录:管理层讨论了多个项目,如圭亚那、巴西、二叠纪、LNG等。但需要找到具体例子,其中首批已交付,且后续更大规模已确定。 例如,二叠纪产量增长:管理层提到第二季度产量环比增长45%,但这是增长,不是首批交付。而且没有明确说这是较小份额,后续更大。 化学业务:贝敦乙烷裂解装置刚启动,但聚乙烯设施已运营,且裂解装置启动是为了替代外购乙烯。这可能是首批,但后续没有明确更大份额。 圭亚那:多个FPSO计划,但第一艘还在建设中,尚未交付。 也许“Permian”的物流:管理层提到已确保到2022年的液体疏散能力,但这是计划。 另一个可能:下游的IMO 2020相关维护,但那是维护,不是业务。 仔细看,管理层提到“我们已签署意向书,计划开发一条每日100万桶的原油运输系统”,但那是意向书,不是已交付。 也许“Mozambique”的LNG:还在开发中。 “新加坡特种化学品”已全面投产,但那是完成,不是首批。 “Baytown裂解装置”刚启动,但聚乙烯设施已运营,且裂解装置启动是为了替代外购乙烯。这可能是首批,但后续没有明确更大份额。 实际上,管理层提到“我们已开始运营我们的150万吨乙烷裂解装置”,但聚乙烯设施已运营,且裂解装置启动是为了替代外购乙烯。这可能是首批,但后续没有明确更大份额。 另一个可能:在圭亚那,管理层说“Liza-1 Phase 1项目进展顺利,预钻开始”,但尚未交付。 也许“Permian”的产量增长:管理层说“第二季度二叠纪产量环比增长45%”,但这是增长,不是首批交付。 再考虑“Downstream”的零售燃料和润滑油:管理层提到“零售燃料和润滑油销售增加”,但那是常规业务。 也许“巴西”的Carcara:管理层说“完成了BM-S-8权益购买”,但那是收购,不是交付。 我认为没有明确符合的。管理层主要是在讨论计划和进展,没有明确说“首批已交付,且后续更大”的具体引擎。 例如,在圭亚那,管理层说“我们已做出第八次发现”,但那是勘探,不是交付。 也许“Permian”的钻井:管理层说“我们已投产50多口新井”,但那是常规。 注意:管理层提到“我们已签署意向书,计划开发一条每日100万桶的原油运输系统”,但那是意向书,不是已交付。 另一个可能:在“Downstream”中,管理层提到“我们已开始运营贝敦乙烷裂解装置”,但聚乙烯设施已运营,且裂解装置启动是为了替代外购乙烯。这可能是首批,但后续没有明确更大份额。 实际上,管理层说“裂解装置启动将使我们能够退出这些乙烯采购,并用我们自己的乙烯量替代”,但那是替代,不是增长。 也许“新加坡特种化学品”已全面投产,但那是完成。 我认为没有符合的。因此答案应为NO。

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, does management describe ONE identifiable engine of new business — such as a specific contract, program, product, facility, customer relationship, market, or expansion — for which BOTH of the following are true in management's own account: (1) A FIRST TRANCHE HAS ACTUALLY LANDED: a real, concrete portion of that engine's business was actually delivered, shipped, completed, opened, billed, or recognized in the just-reported period — described as an accomplished fact with operating substance behind it, not as a plan, pipeline, letter of intent, or hoped-for demand; AND (2) LARGER TRANCHES ARE ALREADY IN MOTION BEHIND IT: management identifies further portions of that SAME engine that are already committed, scheduled, contracted, in production, ramping, or otherwise concretely underway — and conveys, directly or plainly in substance, that what has been delivered so far is the SMALLER share, with the majority of the engine's contribution still ahead over roughly the coming year? The engine, the form of the first delivery, and the form of the continuation may take whatever shape fits the industry — deliveries against a multi-unit order, the first locations of a rollout with more under construction, the first phase of a program with later phases contracted, initial shipments of a ramping product with committed volumes ahead, a first cohort of customers live with more already signed and onboarding — so long as BOTH halves attach to the SAME engine and management treats delivering the remainder as a matter of execution and timing rather than of winning new demand. Answer YES only when management's own words establish the landed portion as real and recent, the continuation as already secured or already in motion (not merely expected, negotiated, or in pipeline), and the remainder as larger than what has been recognized so far. Answer NO if the engine's business is all still ahead with nothing yet delivered; NO if the engine has already substantially completed, with the delivered portion being the larger share and little remaining; NO if the continuation rests on hoped-for demand, market recovery, renewals not yet committed, or approvals, financing, or decisions not yet obtained; NO if the landed and continuing portions belong to different, unconnected parts of the business; NO if the engine is routine, ordinary-course business at the company's usual scale that management does not treat as meaningful to its trajectory; NO if management is chiefly explaining delays, cancellations, or problems with previously scheduled tranches; and NO if the pattern is assembled only in an analyst's question or model that management does not itself affirm. Use only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
ASO Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. Q1 2024 2024-06-11 C+
ATAT Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited Q1 2024 2024-05-23 B+
LINC Lincoln Educational Services Corporation Q1 2024 2024-05-06 B+
LTRX Lantronix, Inc. Q3 2024 2024-04-29 C
E Eni S.p.A. Q1 2024 2024-04-24 B+
FRPH FRP Holdings, Inc. Q4 2023 2024-03-07 C+
ZLAB Zai Lab Limited Q4 2023 2024-02-28 C
VMI Valmont Industries, Inc. Q4 2023 2024-02-22 C
TBLA Taboola.com Ltd. Q3 2023 2023-11-08 B+
JLL Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated Q3 2023 2023-11-02 F
TEL TE Connectivity Ltd. Q4 2023 2023-11-01 B
CLNE Clean Energy Fuels Corp. Q2 2023 2023-08-09 C+
LUCD Lucid Diagnostics Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-16 C+
CEIX CONSOL Energy Inc. Q4 2022 2023-02-07 B
ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-01-31 C+
SOL ReneSola Ltd Q3 2022 2022-12-01 C+
SYM Symbotic Inc. Q3 2022 2022-08-01 B+
CDMO Avid Bioservices, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-03-08 B+
DG Dollar General Corporation Q2 2021 2021-08-26 A
DOV Dover Corporation Q2 2021 2021-07-20 B+
MAS Masco Corporation Q3 2018 2018-10-30 C
FEIM Frequency Electronics, Inc. Q1 2019 2018-09-13 B+
SRDX Surmodics, Inc. Q3 2018 2018-08-06 A
IRT Independence Realty Trust, Inc. Q2 2018 2018-08-02 B
MGA Magna International Inc. Q1 2018 2018-05-10 B+
SATS EchoStar Corporation Q1 2018 2018-05-10 C+
RACE Ferrari N.V. Q3 2017 2017-11-02 C+
FLEX Flex Ltd. Q1 2018 2017-07-28 F
HR Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated Q1 2017 2017-05-08 A
BDN Brandywine Realty Trust Q1 2017 2017-04-21 C+
WTS Watts Water Technologies, Inc. Q4 2016 2017-02-10 B
PSX Phillips 66 Q4 2016 2017-02-03 C+
LBTYK Liberty Global's Q1 2016 2016-05-10 C+
GOGO Gogo Inc. Q1 2016 2016-05-06 C+
MTRX Matrix Service Company Q3 2016 2016-05-05 D
CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. Q1 2016 2016-04-29 F
DD DuPont de Nemours, Inc. Q1 2016 2016-04-26 B+

How the model reasoned

CDMO · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes ONE identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: NO The transcript describes the first phase of the Myford expansion as now operational and scheduling client projects, with management noting they are already utilizing the new space and that an extra $5 million is arguably in backlog attributable to it.
LINC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes ONE identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: YES The transcript identifies the new-campus expansion strategy as the engine. East Point opened in Q1 with 29 starts and $90k revenue (first tranche, concrete and delivered).
LTRX · Q3 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes one identifiable engine of new business that meets two criteria: a first tranche has actually landed in the just-reported period, and larger tranches...

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Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our methodology.