Growing out of the old self: management itself says the company has quietly become a different business, and the numbers
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that the company is now running on a different basis than its reported results and reputation were built on, with both halves: (1) a change of basis already real, and (2) management says the record and perception lag the change. Let's analyze the transcript. Management discusses various initiatives: private brands reimagination, off-mall stores, marketplace, luxury, personalization. They talk about "five growth vectors" and say they are "testing, investing and scaling" and that they are "targeting low single-digit annual net sales and comparable owned plus license sales growth beginning in 2024" off an assumption for a low single-digit decline this year. They say "We have entered 2023 in a position of financial and operational strength with a proven track record of executing our strategic priorities even in periods of uncertainty. This year, we will be testing, investing and scaling for sales and margin expansion." They describe the five vectors as "contemplated when we introduced our long-term low single-digit annual growth sales CAGR goal in the fourth quarter of 2021. Since then, we have steadily invested even as macro pressures have intensified." They say "We are currently targeting low single-digit annual net sales and comparable owned plus license sales growth beginning in 2024" and that this is based on timing and anticipated impact of rollouts. They talk about private brands: "We have created a dedicated private brand team... The team is now executing our vision... We started with an initial update of INC in mid-2022. Early results have been favorable with fourth quarter sales up 28% to last year." So they have already started, but it's early. Off-mall stores: "We currently have 8 Market by Macy’s and 2 Bloomie’s... Looking at the 5 Market by Macy’s and the 1 Bloomie’s that have been open for over a year, fourth quarter comparable owned plus licensed sales increased by 8% and 12% respectively." So they have some stores open and performing. Marketplace: "Since its launch last September, we had found that over 90% of our total marketplace customer base are Macy’s Cross shoppers... We have plans to add 2,000 brands on Macy’s marketplace this year and to launch on Bloomingdale’s marketplace in the back half." So it's launched but still early.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SANG | Sangoma Technologies Corporation | Q2 2024 | 2024-02-08 | D |
| PRPH | ProPhase Labs, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-11 | F |
| CALX | Calix, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-04-20 | C+ |
| WD | Walker & Dunlop, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| KD | Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-01 | C+ |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
| CAG | Conagra Brands, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2016-12-22 | C+ |
CALX · Q1 2023 → YESThe question is whether management conveys that the company today is running on a different basis than what its reported results and reputation were built on. Both parts: a change of basis already rea...YES The transcript shows management describing the company as now operating on a fundamentally different basis—selling into a new market of broadband service providers building consolidated networks, shifting from a legacy cyclical model to sequential revenue through platforms, clouds, and managed services—while treating this as an accomplished reality today, not a future plan. They emphasize numbers like 988 BSP deployments, 865 cloud customers, and 334 managed services customers, along with three years of over 25% growth, as evidence of this new foundation already in place.
SANG · Q2 2024 → YESThe question is whether management conveys that the company today is running on a different basis than the one its reported results and reputation were built on. Both parts: a real change of basis alr...
WD · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is whether management conveys that the company today is running on a different basis than the company its reported results and reputation were built on. Specifically, two parts: a change ...