Insiders still discovering the upside: management reports the opportunity keeps revealing itself bigger in live operatio
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2016 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys both halves: fresh discoveries from live operations and management responding with real attention/resources. The transcript: Gerry Shreiber discusses various segments. Key points: funnel cakes up 58%, churros up 7% with OREO churros, whole-grain funnel cake in schools. He mentions "We have a lot of targets in the fire" and "we’re expecting that to improve over the near-term." Also, "we’ve lots of good opportunities and targets in our sales." But is there a specific discovery from live operations? He mentions "Our whole-grain funnel cake product has been well received in schools and contributed significantly to our sales growth in this quarter." That's a positive surprise? Also, "In-house sales and food service were up, led by sales to one customer." But that's not a discovery of new scope. Later, in Q&A, Gerry talks about funnel cakes: "Maybe, just maybe funnel cakes will be the Churros of the 20s" and mentions a major chain rolling out funnel cake. He says "we do have a major chain that is going to be rolling out funnel cake, different size, but we can do different sizes." That's a future opportunity, not yet discovered from current operation? He says "we’ll be rolling out funnel cake and we can be the beneficiary of that six months from now." That's projection. Also, he mentions "We have a product that I guess we could talk about it officially. If somebody in Minneapolis that’s going to be putting our funnel cake and pretzels, it’s a restaurant chain. And it will be putting it into some couple of 1000 stores in the spring." That's future. What about the ICEE business? He says "gallon sales were up 11% and service revenue to others was up 16% in the quarter as this business continues to perform very well." But no discovery of new upside. He mentions "We renewed our representation agreement with Mike Trout" but that's not a discovery.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEC | WEC Energy Group, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-01 | A |
| PDS | Precision Drilling Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | B |
| ET | Energy Transfer LP | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-02 | C+ |
| IMAX | IMAX Corporation | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-26 | B+ |
| MEC | Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-05 | B+ |
| MOMO | Hello Group Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | D |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| LOPE | Grand Canyon Education, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-08 | C |
| EMR | Emerson Electric Co. | Q3 2021 | 2021-08-04 | B+ |
| TENB | Tenable Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-27 | A |
| UMH | UMH Properties, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-02 | C+ |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | Q2 2018 | 2018-07-27 | C |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-25 | C+ |
| LIND | Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-06 | C |
| BCE | BCE Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-05 | B+ |
| BP | BP p.l.c. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-07 | B+ |
| INGR | Ingredion Incorporated | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-01 | B+ |
BP · Q4 2016 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that it is STILL DISCOVERING NEW UPSIDE INSIDE BUSINESS THAT IS ALREADY WORKING — both discovering new positive surprises from operations AND responding with re...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this posture in the Oman section. They recount a genuine operational surprise—“straight wells that we had not expected,” well rates “above plan,” and liquid production “higher than planned”—that emerged while the asset was actually running.
XOM · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that it is STILL DISCOVERING NEW UPSIDE INSIDE BUSINESS THAT IS ALREADY WORKING — that in the course of actually operating, selling, or delivering in the recent...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this posture in the Guyana section. Neil Chapman recounts fresh upward revisions to resource estimates ("now more than 4 billion... up from the 3.2 billion... just 4 months ago") and the eighth discovery ("Longtail exploration well...
LOPE · Q2 2021 → YESThe question is whether management is still discovering new upside inside a business that's already working, based on recent operations, and responding with attention or resources. YES The transcript shows management discovering fresh upside in the GCU traditional campus platform through live operations: they built three new residence halls expecting no further need next year, but current registrations reveal near-capacity demand, requiring at least two more halls to be built.