Insiders still discovering the upside: management reports the opportunity keeps revealing itself bigger in live operatio
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys both halves: (1) fresh discoveries from live operations, and (2) management responding with real attention/resources. The transcript shows strong growth, but does it recount genuine positive surprises from operating? Tal mentions Retail Media as an example of bringing skills and technology, but that's more of a description of the business model. He says "Our retail business is a great example of how we bring together skills, and technology in a powerful way" - that's not a discovery. He mentions "we can customize our retail ad creative to reflect local weather" - that's a feature, not a surprise. He says "Our technology has already won the Retail TouchPoints award" - that's an award, not a discovery. He says "they are all working with us to drive meaningful business results" - that's just demand. Maoz mentions "SORT revenue increased by 84% year-over-year" - that's a result, not a discovery. He says "Our Retail Media business continued to accelerate growing 63% year-over-year" - again, a result. He says "CTV revenue more than doubled" - result. He says "Average Daily Searches during the quarter grew by 68% year-over-year" - result. He says "This was driven by a 28% year-over-year increase in the number of Search Advertising publisher to 159 and by increased traffic from existing publisher." - that's a driver, not a discovery. Tal says "we're constantly looking for more and more strategic publishers to be added to our network" - that's a plan, not a discovery. He says "we're constantly investing, as you saw the presentation in other verticals" - that's a plan. There is no language like "we were surprised to find that customers are using our product in a new way" or "we discovered that our technology works better than we thought" or "we found that the opportunity is bigger than we expected." The management is confident and reports strong results, but they don't recount any specific learning from live operations that was a positive surprise. They talk about growth, but it's presented as expected or as a result of their strategy, not as a discovery. Also, the second half: management is responding with investments, but that's a general strategy, not a response to a specific discovery. They mention "we are raising our 2023 annual guidance" - that's a financial response, but not a discovery about the opportunity.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEC | WEC Energy Group, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-01 | A |
| PDS | Precision Drilling Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | B |
| ET | Energy Transfer LP | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-02 | C+ |
| IMAX | IMAX Corporation | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-26 | B+ |
| MEC | Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-05 | B+ |
| MOMO | Hello Group Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | D |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| LOPE | Grand Canyon Education, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-08 | C |
| EMR | Emerson Electric Co. | Q3 2021 | 2021-08-04 | B+ |
| TENB | Tenable Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-27 | A |
| UMH | UMH Properties, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-02 | C+ |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | Q2 2018 | 2018-07-27 | C |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-25 | C+ |
| LIND | Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-06 | C |
| BCE | BCE Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-05 | B+ |
| BP | BP p.l.c. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-07 | B+ |
| INGR | Ingredion Incorporated | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-01 | B+ |
BP · Q4 2016 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that it is STILL DISCOVERING NEW UPSIDE INSIDE BUSINESS THAT IS ALREADY WORKING — both discovering new positive surprises from operations AND responding with re...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this posture in the Oman section. They recount a genuine operational surprise—“straight wells that we had not expected,” well rates “above plan,” and liquid production “higher than planned”—that emerged while the asset was actually running.
XOM · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that it is STILL DISCOVERING NEW UPSIDE INSIDE BUSINESS THAT IS ALREADY WORKING — that in the course of actually operating, selling, or delivering in the recent...YES The transcript shows management conveying exactly this posture in the Guyana section. Neil Chapman recounts fresh upward revisions to resource estimates ("now more than 4 billion... up from the 3.2 billion... just 4 months ago") and the eighth discovery ("Longtail exploration well...
LOPE · Q2 2021 → YESThe question is whether management is still discovering new upside inside a business that's already working, based on recent operations, and responding with attention or resources. YES The transcript shows management discovering fresh upside in the GCU traditional campus platform through live operations: they built three new residence halls expecting no further need next year, but current registrations reveal near-capacity demand, requiring at least two more halls to be built.