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Locus of control flip

Locus of control flip: management says the outcome is in its own hands, and names what it controls

Calls Tested
215
Answered YES
49
Hit Rate
22.8%
rare by design

MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) — this company's answers

NO on the Q3 2017 call 2017-10-18 B+
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2017 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that future results will be determined mainly by things the company itself controls, and backs that with a specific, nameable driver already real. Looking at the transcript: Pat Sinks says "we continue to execute on our business strategies" and highlights new business, persistency, etc. But the overall tone: they discuss market conditions like low refinance activity, purchase market growth, etc. They mention "the expanding purchase mortgage market" as a positive. They also discuss regulatory and political fronts, which are external. They talk about FHA, GSE reform, etc. They mention "we are optimistic" about future role but it's external. Key: Do they attribute future results to their own actions? They mention "the hard work and dedication of my fellow coworkers to deliver stellar customer service" and "higher annual persistency" which is partly internal. But persistency is influenced by interest rates (external). They say "Given the current and expected level of mortgage rates, we expect the continued low level of refinance activity and that the annual persistency metric... will continue to increase gradually." That's external. They also mention "we expect to write approximately $48 billion of new business for the full year" based on actual results and anticipated new business. That's a forecast, not necessarily a controllable driver. They discuss capital management, dividends, reinsurance, etc. But the question: does management convey that results will be determined mainly by things they control? They talk about "our ability to continue our positive ratings trajectory" and "debt service ability" but that's more about capital. They also mention "we are actively engaged on this topic in Washington" but that's external. The key is: do they point to a specific controllable driver already in motion? They mention "the increasing size and quality of our insurance in force" which is a result of past actions, but that's not a driver for future improvement? They say "The increasing size and quality of our insurance in force, the runoff of the older books and our strong financial performance position us well" - that's more of a positioning. They also mention "we maintained our traditionally low expense ratio" - that's a control but not a driver of improvement.

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, does management convey that the company's results over the coming periods will be determined mainly by THINGS THE COMPANY ITSELF CONTROLS — its own execution, its own already-identified actions, its own assets or capabilities — rather than by market conditions, industry demand, macroeconomics, prices, or other outside forces, AND does management back that stance by pointing to at least one SPECIFIC, NAMEABLE driver it controls that is already real today? Answer YES when management's own words convey, in whatever form fits the business, ONE coherent posture with both halves present: (1) AN OWNERSHIP STANCE TOWARD THE FUTURE. Management frames the path ahead as substantially self-determined — for example, saying in substance that the outcome is in the company's own hands, that its growth or improvement does not require the market's help or a better environment, that the levers that matter are internal, that whether it delivers comes down to its own execution, or answering questions about external conditions by redirecting to what the company itself is doing. The stance may be stated plainly or emerge clearly from how management consistently explains the road ahead across the call. (2) A NAMED, CONTROLLABLE DRIVER ALREADY IN MOTION. Management identifies at least one concrete thing under its own control that is already real — already underway, in hand, built, signed, launched, staffed, fixed, or being executed now — that it presents as carrying the improvement: for example work already won and being delivered, a capability or capacity already in place being loaded, a product or offering already launched and scaling, an internal fix or change already made whose benefit is arriving, or a self-funded rollout already progressing. The driver may take whatever form fits the industry; what matters is that it belongs to the company, exists today, and is what management points to when explaining why results will improve. Answer NO if management chiefly attributes its future to demand strength, industry tailwinds, pricing environments, seasonality, recovery, or other outside conditions — even optimistically. NO if the self-determination talk is generic confidence ('we control our own destiny', 'execution is our focus') with no specific controllable driver named as already real. NO if the named drivers are plans, pipelines, targets, or hopes not yet in motion. NO if management is mainly blaming external forces for weak results and promising to execute better someday. NO if the environment is described as the main swing factor and the company's own actions as secondary. NO if the posture appears only in an analyst's question or characterization that management does not itself adopt. Use only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
ASO Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. Q1 2024 2024-06-11 C+
SFIX Stitch Fix, Inc. Q3 2024 2024-06-04 C+
RCEL AVITA Medical, Inc. Q1 2024 2024-05-14 F
LINC Lincoln Educational Services Corporation Q1 2024 2024-05-06 B+
TNET TriNet Group, Inc. Q1 2024 2024-04-26 C
DUOT Duos Technologies Group, Inc. Q4 2023 2024-04-01 F
GIII G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. Q4 2024 2024-03-14 C
SANG Sangoma Technologies Corporation Q2 2024 2024-02-08 D
GPRO GoPro, Inc. Q4 2023 2024-02-07 F
ALL The Allstate Corporation Q3 2023 2023-11-02 C+
PTLO Portillo's Inc. Q2 2023 2023-08-05 B
SPT Sprout Social, Inc. Q2 2023 2023-08-04 B+
CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-11 C+
BRX Brixmor Property Group Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-02 A
TSSI TSS, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-04-03 D
DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-03-07 B
ADPT Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation Q4 2022 2023-02-14 C+
VNRX VolitionRx Limited Q1 2022 2022-05-12 F
ZVIA Zevia PBC Q1 2022 2022-05-12 B
HROW Harrow Health, Inc. Q4 2021 2022-03-10 C
RELY Remitly Global, Inc. Q4 2021 2022-03-02 B
GFS GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. Q3 2021 2021-11-30 A
ASAN Asana, Inc. Q2 2022 2021-09-01 B+
CLVT Clarivate Plc Q2 2021 2021-07-31 B+
CUBI Customers Bancorp, Inc. Q3 2018 2018-10-26 C+
ASND Ascendis Pharma A/S Q1 2018 2018-05-30 C+
ALLY Ally Financial Inc. Q1 2018 2018-04-26 B+
SCVL Shoe Carnival, Inc. Q4 2017 2018-03-27 C+
UPLD Upland Software, Inc. Q4 2017 2018-03-08 C+
ITCI Intra-Cellular Therapies, Inc. Q4 2017 2018-03-01 D
UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Q4 2017 2018-01-16 A
HSTM HealthStream, Inc. Q3 2017 2017-10-24 C
STKL SunOpta Inc. Q2 2017 2017-08-09 C+
FLEX Flex Ltd. Q1 2018 2017-07-28 F
PTC PTC Inc. Q3 2017 2017-07-19 C+
IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Q1 2017 2017-05-09 C
BLKB Blackbaud, Inc. Q1 2017 2017-05-02 B+
MRIN Marin Software Incorporated Q4 2016 2017-02-28 D
SXT Sensient Technologies Corporation Q4 2016 2017-02-10 A
ATO Atmos Energy Corporation Q1 2017 2017-02-08 A
EFSC Enterprise Financial Services Corp Q4 2016 2017-01-24 B+
RPM RPM International Inc. Q2 2017 2017-01-05 D
LEE Lee Enterprises, Incorporated Q4 2016 2016-12-09 C
FATE Fate Therapeutics, Inc. Q3 2016 2016-11-07 C
MAT Mattel, Inc. Q3 2016 2016-10-19 C
ARAY Accuray Incorporated Q4 2016 2016-08-17 B
GIS General Mills, Inc. Q4 2016 2016-06-29 B+
ESE ESCO Technologies Inc. Q2 2016 2016-05-03 A
SAN Banco Santander, S.A. Q4 2015 2016-01-27 B

How the model reasoned

TNET · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that the company's results over the coming periods will be determined mainly by THINGS THE COMPANY ITSELF CONTROLS, rather than by market conditions, etc., AND ...YES The transcript shows management framing future results as largely self-determined through internal levers like offsetting attrition with new sales (which they expect to "consistently achieve"), disciplined execution in sales/retention/expenses, and a strategy review to align resources for profitable growth. They back this with specific, already-real drivers: 50 % YoY ACV new sales growth, 28 % YoY growth in tenured sales reps plus productivity gains, and nearly positive sequential core WSE growth in Q1. While acknowledging external headwinds (economic hiring softness, insurance cost inflation), they repeatedly redirect to what they control and point to these internal actions as the primary drivers of improvement. The stance is coherent and not generic. Answer: YES. The question requires "mainly" and "rather than by market conditions, etc."; the transcript meets that threshold by repeatedly emphasizing internal control and execution while treating external factors as secondary headwinds they are managing.
GPRO · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that the company's results over the coming periods will be determined mainly by THINGS THE COMPANY ITSELF CONTROLS, rather than by market conditions, etc., AND ...YES The transcript shows management framing 2024 results as driven primarily by its own actions: the retail expansion already underway (3,200 doors added, 7,000 targeted), new product launches (four SKUs in 2024), the Forcite acquisition closed this quarter, and the Quik desktop app launched 24 hours ago. They repeatedly tie future growth to these internal levers rather than external demand or macro conditions, while noting external factors only as temporary Q4 headwinds. This meets both criteria. NO if it were mainly external or generic. YES. The stance is coherent and backed by a named, already-real driver (ret 3200 doors + strategy shift). The answer is YES. The question is answered with YES. The final answer is YES. The answer is YES. The answer is YES. The answer is YES. The answer is YES. The answer is YES.
HROW · Q4 2021 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that the company's results over the coming periods will be determined mainly by THINGS THE COMPANY ITSELF CONTROLS, rather than by market conditions, etc., AND ...YES The transcript shows management framing the path ahead as substantially self-determined through its own execution and actions (e.g., "positioning Harrow Health to fulfill its vision," "executing on that vision," "we are expanding our existing commercial infrastructure," "establishing our own internal analytical lab," "we expect to see 2023 number looks like 2024, 2025" via "profits that this team has been able to generate," and "we have that amazing commercial team and we have a large customer base" for launches without dilution). They redirect from external factors like COVID to internal progress and state they will "not dilute our shareholders necessarily to launch AMP-100" due to internal capabilities.

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Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our methodology.