New business is being written on visibly better terms than the company's own recent norm, and the mix shift has just beg
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2021 call → NOWe need to determine if management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement has only begun to flow into reported results because most of the business in the reported numbers was still written at older, less favorable terms. Let's analyze the transcript. The question is about "economic terms of the company's newest business" — meaning prices, rates, fees, etc. In this context, it's about pricing of products, AURs, etc. Management discusses pricing power, AURs, and mix shifts. For example, Scott Baxter says: "our digital AURs are up high single-digits in the U.S. year-to-date." That indicates that the prices on digital sales are up. But is that a step-up in the terms of new business? It's about current sales. Rustin Welton discusses 2022 gross margins and pricing actions. He says: "we are confident in the back half given current market conditions... the combination of executing pricing actions, higher AURs, and structurally accretive mix shifts support our view based on current market conditions that full year 2022 gross margins will be at or above full year 2021 levels." That suggests they are taking pricing actions, but is that already reflected? He says "executing pricing actions" - so they are doing it now. But does he say that the reported results still mostly reflect old terms? He says "we have good visibility into the first half and are confident in the back half" - that might imply that the benefits of pricing will be more in the future. But the question specifically asks: "the improvement in the terms of incoming business has only BEGUN to flow into the reported results, because most of the business in the reported numbers was still written at the older, less favorable terms." So we need to see if management explicitly says that the better terms are only beginning to show up, and that the reported numbers are still dominated by older terms. Let's look for such statements. Rustin says: "we have incurred elevated transitory cost as we anticipated and reflected in our revised outlook last quarter. These transitory costs were largely driven by air freight as we chased production to meet the accelerated strong demand." That's about costs, not pricing.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTO | CTO Realty Growth, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-28 | B |
| CARS | Cars.com Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-06 | B |
| BRX | Brixmor Property Group Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-02 | A |
| CRBG | Corebridge Financial, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-22 | B |
| FLR | Fluor Corporation | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-05 | D |
| CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-03 | C |
| BRKL | Brookline Bancorp, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-30 | B+ |
| INVH | Invitation Homes Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-28 | B+ |
| MTB | M&T Bank Corporation | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-20 | B+ |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| GNK | Genco Shipping & Trading Limited | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-07 | A |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-03 | B+ |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-26 | B+ |
CRL · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...YES Management's comments on Safety Assessment pricing and backlog directly address both required elements: they describe current bookings and backlog at "escalating prices" and "meaningful price increases" that are already achieved on real transactions (not targets or future expectations), while noting that the reported Q2 results are still dominated by older 2022 terms and that the stronger pricing is accelerating into H2 and 2023 bookings.
ESS · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...YES Management describes the loss-to-lease metric rising to 3.
CTO · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...