New business is being written on visibly better terms than the company's own recent norm, and the mix shift has just beg
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management indicates that the economic terms of the newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement has only begun to flow into reported results because most of the reported business was still written at older, less favorable terms. We need to look for both halves: (1) new business terms visibly improved vs own recent past, and (2) reported results still mostly reflect old terms. The transcript: management discusses various aspects. They talk about holding pricing levels, not dropping prices. They mention that they have not given price concessions. They talk about the mix shifting to smaller homes, which lowered ASP. They talk about interest rates on loans: "we are pushing rate higher now" and "we will get back to a point where the rates on our chattel loans are closer to what they were 4 or 5 years ago than over the last few years." That suggests they are increasing rates on new loans. But is that a step-up above their own recent norm? They say they are pushing rates higher now, but they also say they kept rates low because they are not borrowing to land. They mention "in certain unique situations where we're financing a certain type of borrower... we're certainly pushing rates higher." So they are increasing rates on some loans, but is that a meaningful step-up? They say they will get back to rates closer to 4-5 years ago, implying current rates are lower than that. So they are raising rates, but not necessarily above their own recent norm? Actually, they say "we are pushing rate higher now" and "we will get back to a point where the rates on our chattel loans are closer to what they were 4 or 5 years ago than over the last few years." That suggests that recent rates have been lower, and they are now increasing them. So new loans are being written at higher rates than recent loans. That could be a step-up. But do they say that the reported results still mostly reflect old terms? They talk about the loan portfolio increasing, but they don't explicitly say that the improvement in rates has only begun to flow into results. They mention that the loan portfolio is performing well, but they don't say that the reported interest income is still based on older, lower rates.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTO | CTO Realty Growth, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-28 | B |
| CARS | Cars.com Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-06 | B |
| BRX | Brixmor Property Group Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-02 | A |
| CRBG | Corebridge Financial, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-22 | B |
| FLR | Fluor Corporation | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-05 | D |
| CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-03 | C |
| BRKL | Brookline Bancorp, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-30 | B+ |
| INVH | Invitation Homes Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-28 | B+ |
| MTB | M&T Bank Corporation | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-20 | B+ |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| GNK | Genco Shipping & Trading Limited | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-07 | A |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-03 | B+ |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-26 | B+ |
CRL · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...YES Management's comments on Safety Assessment pricing and backlog directly address both required elements: they describe current bookings and backlog at "escalating prices" and "meaningful price increases" that are already achieved on real transactions (not targets or future expectations), while noting that the reported Q2 results are still dominated by older 2022 terms and that the stronger pricing is accelerating into H2 and 2023 bookings.
ESS · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...YES Management describes the loss-to-lease metric rising to 3.
CTO · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...