New business is being written on visibly better terms than the company's own recent norm, and the mix shift has just beg
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2024 call → NOWe need to determine if management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement has only begun to flow into reported results. The question asks about "the economic terms of the company's newest business" - meaning the prices, rates, fees, spreads, etc. at which recent deals are being struck. We need to see if management says these terms are better than their own recent norm, and that the reported results still mostly reflect older terms. Looking at the transcript, there is discussion about loan growth, deposit costs, net interest margin, etc. But the question is specifically about the terms of new business improving. For a bank, that could be loan yields, deposit costs (but that's a cost, not a revenue term), or fee income. Management talks about net interest margin expansion expected in the second half of the year due to fixed-rate asset repricing. For example, Jamie Gregory says: "we expect the margin expansion to continue as we get into next year. But just to that fixed-rate asset repricing, but just wanted to be really clear on that one." Also, Kevin Blair says: "we have a path to expansion and one that's very similar to what we talked about back in January." They mention that fixed-rate asset repricing will benefit margin. However, is that a step-up in the terms of new business? Fixed-rate asset repricing means that as older loans mature and are replaced with new loans at higher rates, the yield on the portfolio increases. That is indeed a case where new business (new loans) is being written at higher rates than the old ones. But is that described as a meaningful step-up above the company's own recent norm? They talk about a 10-15 basis point margin expansion by year-end. That seems modest. Also, they mention that the improvement is expected in the second half, and that the first quarter margin declined. They say "we expect relative stability in the net interest margin" for Q2, and then expansion in the second half. So the improvement is not yet fully reflected; it's expected to come as repricing occurs. That fits the second half of the phenomenon: the reported results still reflect older terms, and the better terms are coming.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTO | CTO Realty Growth, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-28 | B |
| CARS | Cars.com Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-06 | B |
| BRX | Brixmor Property Group Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-02 | A |
| CRBG | Corebridge Financial, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-22 | B |
| FLR | Fluor Corporation | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-05 | D |
| CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-03 | C |
| BRKL | Brookline Bancorp, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-30 | B+ |
| INVH | Invitation Homes Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-28 | B+ |
| MTB | M&T Bank Corporation | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-20 | B+ |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| GNK | Genco Shipping & Trading Limited | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-07 | A |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-03 | B+ |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-26 | B+ |
CRL · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...YES Management's comments on Safety Assessment pricing and backlog directly address both required elements: they describe current bookings and backlog at "escalating prices" and "meaningful price increases" that are already achieved on real transactions (not targets or future expectations), while noting that the reported Q2 results are still dominated by older 2022 terms and that the stronger pricing is accelerating into H2 and 2023 bookings.
ESS · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...YES Management describes the loss-to-lease metric rising to 3.
CTO · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...