New business is being written on visibly better terms than the company's own recent norm, and the mix shift has just beg
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement has only begun to flow into reported results because most of the business in the reported numbers was still written at older, less favorable terms. Let's analyze the transcript. The company is Two Harbors Investment Corp., a mortgage REIT. They discuss their portfolio, RMBS, MSR, and an acquisition of RoundPoint. Key points: They increased RMBS exposure and leverage, moved up in coupon, etc. They talk about attractive returns. But the question is about the economic terms of the newest business stepping up above their own recent norm, and that improvement is only beginning to flow into results. They mention that they have repositioned the portfolio to take advantage of market environment by increasing RMBS exposure and leverage. They also mention that they have agreed to acquire RoundPoint, which will bring in-house servicing, and they expect incremental annual pre-tax earnings of approximately $20 million. But that acquisition is expected to close in 2023, and they plan to begin transitioning loans later this year. So that is future. They talk about returns on new investments: "Static return expectations are as interesting as they have been in a very long time. Lower coupon pools and TBA offer high single-digit returns with relatively low convexity risks. Projected returns on current coupon pools and TBA are in the mid-teens, having very wide spreads, and stand to benefit the most if and when rate volatility subsides. The MSR paired strategy also continues to have low to mid teens returns and lower RMBS spread risk. All of these pairings currently offer very attractive returns with different risk profiles." But is this about the terms of new business? They are investing in RMBS and MSR. They say they have increased exposure and leverage. They also say that they have been buying higher coupon RMBS, etc. But do they explicitly say that the terms of new business (i.e., the yields or spreads on new investments) are meaningfully better than their own recent norm? They mention that mortgage spreads are historically wide, and they are taking advantage. They also mention that they have repositioned the portfolio.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTO | CTO Realty Growth, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-28 | B |
| CARS | Cars.com Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-06 | B |
| BRX | Brixmor Property Group Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-02 | A |
| CRBG | Corebridge Financial, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-22 | B |
| FLR | Fluor Corporation | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-05 | D |
| CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-03 | C |
| BRKL | Brookline Bancorp, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-30 | B+ |
| INVH | Invitation Homes Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-28 | B+ |
| MTB | M&T Bank Corporation | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-20 | B+ |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| GNK | Genco Shipping & Trading Limited | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-07 | A |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-03 | B+ |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-26 | B+ |
CRL · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...YES Management's comments on Safety Assessment pricing and backlog directly address both required elements: they describe current bookings and backlog at "escalating prices" and "meaningful price increases" that are already achieved on real transactions (not targets or future expectations), while noting that the reported Q2 results are still dominated by older 2022 terms and that the stronger pricing is accelerating into H2 and 2023 bookings.
ESS · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...YES Management describes the loss-to-lease metric rising to 3.
CTO · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management indicates that the economic terms of the company's newest business have stepped up meaningfully above the company's own recent norm, and that this improvement ...