Priced like the old business, running like a new one: management is redirecting the call away from the metric investors
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2021 call → NOWe need to determine if management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional yardstick and toward a different part of the business that is already earning, and conveys that the record hasn't caught up. The transcript: Quest Diagnostics Q2 2021 earnings call. The conventional yardstick for a lab company is likely base business testing volumes/revenues, or total revenues, or EPS. Management discusses base business recovery, COVID testing, etc. Key points: Management says "organic based testing revenues grew compared to 2019 levels in the quarter. This is the first quarter since 2019 that organic base testing revenues grew." They talk about base business recovery. They also discuss COVID testing. They mention "base business" as the core. They also discuss "advanced diagnostics" and "consumer initiated testing" as growth areas. They also discuss "health plan business" and "value based programs" with UnitedHealthcare and Anthem. They say "Our volumes of these health plans are growing faster than the company average." They also mention "base consumer initiated testing revenues continued to grow." They also mention "we are on our way to grow our base business revenues approximately 2% from accretive strategic acquisitions this year." The question: Does management repeatedly redirect attention away from the measure or storyline by which the company is conventionally judged and toward a different part of the business that it says is already earning today? And does management indicate that this different part is not yet what the company's reported results or outside understanding reflect? We need to identify the conventional yardstick. For Quest, the conventional yardstick might be total revenues, or base business volumes, or EPS. But management is discussing base business recovery as a positive. They are not setting aside the conventional yardstick. They are actually emphasizing the base business recovery. They are also discussing COVID testing as a separate thing. They are not saying "don't look at total revenue, look at this other thing." They are saying base business is recovering, and they are also investing in growth areas like advanced diagnostics, consumer, health plans. But are they setting aside the conventional yardstick? They are not saying the conventional yardstick is no longer relevant. They are actually using it.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAH | Noah Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-30 | D |
| DUOT | Duos Technologies Group, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-04-01 | F |
| OPAD | Offerpad Solutions Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| PRPH | ProPhase Labs, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-11 | F |
| CALX | Calix, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-04-20 | C+ |
| WD | Walker & Dunlop, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| LC | LendingClub Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-26 | A |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| LPTH | LightPath Technologies, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2021-09-09 | D |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-25 | C+ |
SPT · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional measure toward a different part of the business that's already earning today, and indicates that this diffe...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly reframing away from the conventional total ARR/revenue growth metric (which is being distorted by unpredictable low-end non-core ARR) toward the higher-quality up-market/enterprise segment that is already delivering record new business ACVs, 50%+ YoY growth, and 43% of 2023 ARR. They explicitly set the low-end aside by removing it from forecasts and modeling to give “greatest visibility,” note that Q2 ARR growth will be the lowest pace of the year because of this change, and indicate the reported figures still reflect the old mix while the new up-market story is already earning today (with Tagger adding further upside not yet reflected). This creates the coherent posture of redirecting attention from the headline growth number outsiders watch to the part of the business that is already producing real results.
WD · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional measure to a different part of the business that's already earning today, and indicates that this isn...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly reframing the discussion away from the conventional multifamily agency lender yardstick (origination volumes, GSE lending, MSR-driven EPS) toward the diversified services and asset-management businesses that are already generating substantial cash revenue and EBITDA today. They explicitly set the old metric aside by introducing adjusted EPS to “strip out non-cash mortgage servicing rights,” highlight the shift from “lending-centric” to “broader technology-enabled financial services,” and note that segment results now provide “more transparency into our operating structure.” They point to debt brokerage, property sales, SAM (Alliant, Zelman), small-balance lending, and appraisals as the new earning engines, describing their concrete contributions (e.g.
CALX · Q1 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management repeatedly redirects attention away from the conventional measure to a different part of the business that's already earning today, and indicates that this isn...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly framing the company as operating in a "new market" centered on platforms, clouds, and managed services—distinct from the legacy hardware/cyclical model—while highlighting real earnings from these areas (e.g., 988 BSPs deploying platforms, 865 cloud customers, 334 with 41 new managed services in Q1, record Intelligent Access EDGE revenue). They indicate this is already producing revenue and customer adoption but remains early-stage ("this is the beginning," "early stage of where we are in this new market"), with reported results still reflecting the prior hardware-focused picture.