Proven engine, fuel already in the tank: a working growth driver plus already-held means to multiply it
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2024 call → NOThe question asks whether management describes BOTH of the following about the SAME part of the business, as one connected present-tense story: (1) A PROVEN, ALREADY-PRODUCING GROWTH ENGINE THAT IS STILL SMALL RELATIVE TO ITS ROOM. (2) THE MEANS TO MULTIPLY IT ARE ALREADY IN THE COMPANY'S HANDS. Let me analyze the transcript. The main topics discussed: - Sale of offshore wind business (exiting, not a growth engine) - Connecticut regulatory issues (cutting capital, not growth) - Massachusetts ESMP (Electric Sector Modernization Plan) - this is a plan, filed, awaiting decision - New Hampshire solar - "we are in the first inning of this game" - early stage, not yet producing - Water business sale - being reviewed Let me look for a growth engine that is already producing and still small relative to its room. The Massachusetts ESMP: "Our ESMP calls for an incremental $600 million of capital investments for interconnection of solar resources through 2028." This is a plan filed, awaiting decision in August. Not yet producing. New Hampshire solar: "we are really in the first inning of this game" - this is early, not yet producing real business. The transmission business: "Our electric transmission earned $0.50 per share compared with earnings of $0.45 per share in 2023. Improved results were driven by our continued investments in our transmission system to address capacity growth for customers and connect clean energy resources to the region." This is producing, but is it described as small relative to its room? Not really - it's just described as improved results. The natural gas distribution: "Natural Gas Distribution earnings increased due to higher revenues from capital cost recovery mechanisms, a base rate increase at NSTAR Gas and lower operating expenses." Again, producing but no "small relative to room" narrative. The storm restoration / resiliency investments: "Through our investments in technology, including smart switches and other reliability innovations, we were able to restore 85,000 customers in New Hampshire within five minutes" - this is about reliability, not a growth engine. The clean energy future: "we project that average household electric demand will double in the summer and more than triple in the winter" - this is a projection, not current production.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| NOAH | Noah Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-30 | D |
| WRBY | Warby Parker Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-09 | A |
| LINC | Lincoln Educational Services Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-06 | B+ |
| ROCK | Gibraltar Industries, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-01 | B+ |
| LTRX | Lantronix, Inc. | Q3 2024 | 2024-04-29 | C |
| TNET | TriNet Group, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-26 | C |
| APYX | Apyx Medical Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-21 | C |
| HUYA | HUYA Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-19 | C |
| GIII | G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. | Q4 2024 | 2024-03-14 | C |
| NICE | NICE Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-22 | B+ |
| OUT | Outfront Media Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-21 | C+ |
| PUMP | ProPetro Holding Corp. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-21 | C+ |
| DXCM | DexCom, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-08 | B+ |
| SCPH | scPharmaceuticals Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-08 | B |
| OPAD | Offerpad Solutions Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C |
| APAM | Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C+ |
| RVLV | Revolve Group, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C |
| DASH | DoorDash, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C+ |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | Q3 2023 | 2023-10-31 | B |
| TGLS | Tecnoglass Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-08 | A |
| PTLO | Portillo's Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-05 | B |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| AFL | Aflac Incorporated | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-02 | C+ |
| NMR | Nomura Holdings, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2023-08-02 | D |
| BRX | Brixmor Property Group Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-02 | A |
| DKS | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-03-07 | B |
| M | Macy's, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-03-02 | D |
| TGT | Target Corporation | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-28 | C |
| TOST | Toast, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-16 | C+ |
| ADPT | Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-14 | C+ |
| HBAN | Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | Q4 2022 | 2023-01-20 | B |
| WGO | Winnebago Industries, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2022-12-16 | D |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| BLZE | Backblaze, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-11 | D |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
| SYY | Sysco Corporation | Q1 2023 | 2022-11-01 | C+ |
| KEY | KeyCorp | Q3 2022 | 2022-10-20 | B+ |
| TMCI | Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-13 | B+ |
| HLNE | Hamilton Lane Incorporated | Q1 2023 | 2022-08-02 | C+ |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| UPWK | Upwork Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-27 | C+ |
| OGI | OrganiGram Holdings Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-07-14 | B+ |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | Q4 2022 | 2022-06-22 | B |
| SE | Sea Limited | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-17 | F |
| FLYW | Flywire Corporation | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-14 | B+ |
| ZVIA | Zevia PBC | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-12 | B |
| IRTC | iRhythm Technologies, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-07 | C+ |
| BXP | Boston Properties, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-03 | A |
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| RELY | Remitly Global, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-02 | B |
| FLUX | Flux Power Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-02-10 | D |
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| GTES | Gates Industrial Corporation plc | Q4 2021 | 2022-02-07 | C+ |
| SLQT | SelectQuote, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-02-07 | F |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| LOW | Lowe's Companies, Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-17 | B+ |
| KTB | Kontoor Brands, Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | A |
| LPTH | LightPath Technologies, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2021-09-09 | D |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| CPRX | Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | C+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
| LOPE | Grand Canyon Education, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-08 | C |
| EEX | Emerald Holding, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-01 | C+ |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | C+ |
| TENB | Tenable Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-27 | A |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-13 | A |
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| CUBI | Customers Bancorp, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-26 | C+ |
| T | AT&T Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-24 | C+ |
| STM | STMicroelectronics NV | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-24 | C+ |
| LRN | Stride, Inc. | Q1 2019 | 2018-10-23 | B |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | Q2 2018 | 2018-07-27 | C |
| MKC | McCormick & Company, Incorporated | Q2 2018 | 2018-06-28 | C+ |
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| ILMN | Illumina, Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | A |
| ATI | Allegheny Technologies Incorporated | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | B |
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| FI | Fiserv, Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2018-02-27 | C |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | Q4 2017 | 2018-01-16 | A |
| MITK | Mitek Systems, Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2017-11-07 | C+ |
| UAA | Under Armour, Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-31 | F |
| IR | Ingersoll-Rand Plc | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-25 | B |
| MKTX | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-25 | C+ |
| GNTX | Gentex Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-20 | B |
| BCE | BCE Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-05 | B+ |
| CCOI | Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-03 | B |
| IONS | Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-09 | C |
| LBTYK | Liberty Global's | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-10 | C+ |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
| DD | DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-26 | B+ |
| WK | Workiva Inc. | Q4 2015 | 2016-03-01 | B |
NMR · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is whether management describes BOTH a proven, already-producing growth engine that's still small relative to its room, AND the means to multiply it already in the company's hands, as one...YES The transcript shows management describing the Retail business as a growth engine that's already producing real results (net revenue up 22%, income up 133% after reorganization in March, recurring and flow revenue benefits starting to appear) but still small relative to its room (only 1,600 partners deployed out of a much larger potential base, with Q-on-Q progress negative from uncontacted clients, and explicit statements like "if we can broaden our partner base, then we will start to see the benefit" and "we have not been able to contact all clients").
OWL · Q2 2021 → YESThe question is whether management describes BOTH a proven, already-producing growth engine that's still small relative to its room, AND the means to multiply it already in the company's hands, as one...YES The transcript shows management describing Direct Lending as a proven growth engine already producing real activity ($5.1 billion gross deployments in the quarter, $31 billion AUM) while still small relative to its opportunity (explicitly "very small relative to total market opportunity" with a $300 billion market and $1. 5 trillion PE dry powder). They connect this directly to the means already in hand: existing sponsor relationships (500), $8.
WRBY · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is: Does management describe BOTH of a proven, already-producing growth engine that's still small relative to its room, AND the means to multiply it already in the company's hands, as one...