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Quietly replacing the old way

Quietly replacing the old way: customers are switching to the company from an entrenched alternative, and the switching

Calls Tested
485
Answered YES
26
Hit Rate
5.4%
rare by design

Marin Software Incorporated (MRIN) — this company's answers

NO on the Q4 2016 call 2017-02-28 D
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2016 call → NO我们根据要求，只使用提供的财报电话会议记录。需要判断管理层是否描述了客户正在从现有替代方案转向该公司，并且这种转换仍处于早期阶段，大部分潜在转换者尚未转换。 在记录中，Chris Lien提到：“Marketers seek to maximize the value of their online advertising investments, that they face an advertising world by the two leading publishers, Google and Facebook, account for some 75% of online traffic and approximately 60% of all online advertising. These two publishers operate as walled gardens leaving advertisers to figure out the growing complexity of their customers’ path to purchase, plus multiple advertising and device touch point. This dynamic gives Marin enduring competitive advantage, as the publisher tool sets for not addressed cross-publisher, cross-channel need and a lack of independence calls into question the measurement budget allocation and optimization functionality that these closed platforms can provide.” 这里提到Google和Facebook是封闭平台，而Marin提供独立跨渠道平台，暗示客户可能从这些封闭平台转向Marin。但这是否明确描述客户正在从这些平台转向Marin？管理层没有直接说“客户正在从Google/Facebook转向我们”，而是说这些平台有局限性，Marin有优势。此外，后面提到“we still the rise of new publishers with the opportunity to reach new customers or to routine and engage in interesting ones.” 这更多是机会。 关于“switching”是否正在发生？管理层提到了一些客户胜利，但并没有明确说这些客户是从某个替代方案转过来的。例如：“Over the past few months, Marin has singed up, renewed or expanded our commercial relationships with leading advertisers...” 但没有说他们之前用的是别的。 关于“early stages”和“most potential switchers not yet converted”，管理层没有明确说。他们提到“we expect Marin to return to growth over the course of 2017”，但那是关于自身增长。 因此，没有明确描述一个正在进行的替代过程，即客户从现有替代方案转向Marin，并且大部分尚未转换。管理层只是说Marin有优势，但并没有说客户正在实际转换。所以答案应为NO。

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON — abandoning or displacing an incumbent supplier, a legacy product or technology, an older method, or an established way of doing things in order to adopt what this company sells — AND does management convey that this switching is still in its early stages, with most of the potential switchers not yet converted? Answer YES when management's own words convey, in whatever form fits the business, ONE coherent phenomenon as a present-tense reality: a substitution is underway in the company's market, and this company is the one being substituted IN. Any genuine expression of this counts, and the form varies widely across industries. For example — management describing customers replacing a competitor's or incumbent's product with theirs; customers moving off a legacy technology, material, method, platform, or practice onto the company's; buyers who used to do the work themselves, or do without, now adopting the company's offering instead; customers consolidating onto the company after dropping other vendors; management noting that wins are coming at the direct expense of a named or clearly implied alternative that used to be the default; or management describing that the conversation in its market has shifted from "whether to switch" to "how fast to switch." Two things should come through in management's own voice. First, THE SWITCHING IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING NOW — real customers who have already moved, described as a recurring pattern in current business (won accounts, displaced incumbents, conversions completed, replacements underway), not a hope that switching will someday begin. Second, THE INSTALLED BASE OF THE OLD WAY IS STILL LARGE — management conveys, directly or plainly in substance, that what has switched so far is small relative to what is still out there using the old alternative, so the substitution has substantial distance left to run. Answer NO if management simply reports strong demand, a good quarter, or growth in a market with no incumbent or prior alternative being displaced. NO if the switching is only anticipated, targeted, or described as a future opportunity rather than already occurring. NO if the only evidence is one isolated account win with no sense of a broader substitution pattern. NO if the displacement described is essentially complete, with the old alternative already largely gone. NO if the switching is driven by a one-time event — a single competitor's collapse, a temporary shortage, a forced recall — that management expects to normalize rather than an ongoing substitution. NO if the idea appears only in an analyst's question or characterization that management does not itself affirm. Use only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
CRGO Freightos Limited Q1 2024 2024-05-20 C+
IFS Intercorp Financial Services Inc. Q1 2024 2024-05-14 C+
NICE NICE Ltd. Q4 2023 2024-02-22 B+
APPS Digital Turbine, Inc. Q1 2024 2023-08-08 D
SPT Sprout Social, Inc. Q2 2023 2023-08-04 B+
MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. Q2 2023 2023-07-28 B+
IMAX IMAX Corporation Q2 2023 2023-07-26 B+
PFIE Profire Energy, Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-13 B
TOST Toast, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-02-16 C+
BLZE Backblaze, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-11 D
SIBN SI-BONE, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-07 C+
TMCI Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. Q2 2022 2022-08-13 B+
SGRY Surgery Partners, Inc. Q2 2022 2022-08-02 B+
BIG Big Lots, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-27 F
FLYW Flywire Corporation Q1 2022 2022-05-14 B+
ZVIA Zevia PBC Q1 2022 2022-05-12 B
IRTC iRhythm Technologies, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-07 C+
RELY Remitly Global, Inc. Q4 2021 2022-03-02 B
GTES Gates Industrial Corporation plc Q4 2021 2022-02-07 C+
RNW ReNew Energy Global Plc Q2 2022 2021-11-18 C
ILMN Illumina, Inc. Q1 2018 2018-04-24 A
INST Instructure's Q4 2017 2018-02-12 B+
HOLX Hologic, Inc. Q4 2017 2017-11-08 D
BLKB Blackbaud, Inc. Q1 2017 2017-05-02 B+
EVBN Evans Bancorp, Inc. Q4 2016 2017-02-06 B+
BDC Belden Inc. Q4 2016 2017-02-02 B

How the model reasoned

BLKB · Q1 2017 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES Management describes customers switching from entrenched alternatives (legacy hardware systems, older Raiser's Edge versions, standalone point solutions) to Blackbaud's cloud solutions like NXT, with examples of recent replacements and migrations already occurring. They also note that much of the potential remains, as the installed base of legacy methods is still large 25% of subscription revenue, and they describe the opportunity as "really early days" with substantial distance left to run. This fits the criteria of a present-tense substitution pattern in the market, not just future hope. The high retention on their own base (93%) combined with declining maintenance revenue shows the shift is active and ongoing, while new wins against competitors and legacy alternatives are happening now. The TAM of $7 billion with hundreds of thousands of addressable customers reinforces that switching is early-stage relative to the total opportunity. The answer is YES. The question is answered with YES. The question is answered with YES.
BLZE · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES The transcript shows management describing current customer switches from entrenched alternatives (AWS for urlscan.io; Synology NAS/on-prem for Fiture; broader AWS and on-prem users), with these as real, ongoing patterns. They explicitly note that much of the potential remains ("so much of the world's data is still on-premises" and "customers that are inside of AWS and others"), confirming the substitution is early-stage relative to the large installed base. This is conveyed directly in Gleb's responses as a present-tense reality, not merely anticipated. The two examples plus the broader opportunity framing establish a coherent substitution underway, with the company being substituted in. The investor question on percentages and Gleb's reply reinforce the pattern without contradicting the current movement. No single-event or future-only framing applies here. Thus, both conditions are met.
APPS · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES The transcript shows management describing customers shifting from Apple/Google app stores to DT Hub and SingleTap-enabled alternative distribution as an ongoing, early-stage substitution. Bill Stone notes the company has already launched DT Hub with four U.S. operators and is generating revenue today, while highlighting "increasing pressure on the duopoly" and 5 monetization ways for SingleTap that enable publishers to direct-download apps outside traditional stores. He explicitly calls it "very early days and not yet material to our overall results" and "early innings," confirming the installed base of the old way remains large and the switch is just beginning with incremental RPD gains from devices engaging the new platform. This meets the criteria of a present-tense substitution underway, with the company positioned as the alternative being adopted.

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Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our methodology.