Quietly replacing the old way: customers are switching to the company from an entrenched alternative, and the switching
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2024 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes customers switching from an entrenched alternative to the company, and that this switching is still early with most potential switchers not yet converted. Let's analyze the transcript. Management talks about transformation, go-to-market strategy, bundling, etc. They mention a recent client win: a statewide park department that required a comprehensive solution. They say "Smaller vendors providing point solutions or components, they put the burden on clients to manage and integrate these pieces themselves, and larger vendors would have difficulty providing the capabilities and support needed at an affordable price. Sangoma is well positioned to play in both the small market and more sophisticated mid-market." This suggests they are displacing smaller vendors or larger vendors? But it's one win. They also talk about "bundled offerings" and "targeting sophisticated mid-market clients." They mention that historically they sold component technologies, but now they are bundling. They say "This ability to expand our offerings has and will prove instrumental in serving clients with more complex and rapidly expanding needs." They talk about "go-to-market adaptation of this scale will take time to ramp, and there'll be a lag before it delivers material results." That suggests it's early. But is there a clear description of customers switching from an entrenched alternative? They mention "smaller vendors providing point solutions" and "larger vendors" as alternatives. But they don't explicitly say that customers are abandoning those alternatives in large numbers. They say "Sangoma is well positioned" and "we anticipate tapping into market segments" - that's future. The one win is an example. They also talk about "the transformation of our go-to-market strategy" causing a slight decline in services revenue sequentially. That suggests they are changing how they sell, not that customers are switching. Management also mentions "the stickiness of our services business" with churn of 0.9%, indicating customers are staying, not switching away. They don't describe a mass migration from incumbents.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRGO | Freightos Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-20 | C+ |
| IFS | Intercorp Financial Services Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-14 | C+ |
| NICE | NICE Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-22 | B+ |
| APPS | Digital Turbine, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2023-08-08 | D |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| MBLY | Mobileye Global Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-28 | B+ |
| IMAX | IMAX Corporation | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-26 | B+ |
| PFIE | Profire Energy, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-13 | B |
| TOST | Toast, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-16 | C+ |
| BLZE | Backblaze, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-11 | D |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
| TMCI | Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-13 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| BIG | Big Lots, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-27 | F |
| FLYW | Flywire Corporation | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-14 | B+ |
| ZVIA | Zevia PBC | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-12 | B |
| IRTC | iRhythm Technologies, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-07 | C+ |
| RELY | Remitly Global, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-02 | B |
| GTES | Gates Industrial Corporation plc | Q4 2021 | 2022-02-07 | C+ |
| RNW | ReNew Energy Global Plc | Q2 2022 | 2021-11-18 | C |
| ILMN | Illumina, Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | A |
| INST | Instructure's | Q4 2017 | 2018-02-12 | B+ |
| HOLX | Hologic, Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2017-11-08 | D |
| BLKB | Blackbaud, Inc. | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-02 | B+ |
| EVBN | Evans Bancorp, Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-06 | B+ |
| BDC | Belden Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-02 | B |
BLKB · Q1 2017 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES Management describes customers switching from entrenched alternatives (legacy hardware systems, older Raiser's Edge versions, standalone point solutions) to Blackbaud's cloud solutions like NXT, with examples of recent replacements and migrations already occurring. They also note that much of the potential remains, as the installed base of legacy methods is still large 25% of subscription revenue, and they describe the opportunity as "really early days" with substantial distance left to run. This fits the criteria of a present-tense substitution pattern in the market, not just future hope. The high retention on their own base (93%) combined with declining maintenance revenue shows the shift is active and ongoing, while new wins against competitors and legacy alternatives are happening now. The TAM of $7 billion with hundreds of thousands of addressable customers reinforces that switching is early-stage relative to the total opportunity. The answer is YES. The question is answered with YES. The question is answered with YES.
BLZE · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES The transcript shows management describing current customer switches from entrenched alternatives (AWS for urlscan.io; Synology NAS/on-prem for Fiture; broader AWS and on-prem users), with these as real, ongoing patterns. They explicitly note that much of the potential remains ("so much of the world's data is still on-premises" and "customers that are inside of AWS and others"), confirming the substitution is early-stage relative to the large installed base. This is conveyed directly in Gleb's responses as a present-tense reality, not merely anticipated. The two examples plus the broader opportunity framing establish a coherent substitution underway, with the company being substituted in. The investor question on percentages and Gleb's reply reinforce the pattern without contradicting the current movement. No single-event or future-only framing applies here. Thus, both conditions are met.
APPS · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES The transcript shows management describing customers shifting from Apple/Google app stores to DT Hub and SingleTap-enabled alternative distribution as an ongoing, early-stage substitution. Bill Stone notes the company has already launched DT Hub with four U.S. operators and is generating revenue today, while highlighting "increasing pressure on the duopoly" and 5 monetization ways for SingleTap that enable publishers to direct-download apps outside traditional stores. He explicitly calls it "very early days and not yet material to our overall results" and "early innings," confirming the installed base of the old way remains large and the switch is just beginning with incremental RPD gains from devices engaging the new platform. This meets the criteria of a present-tense substitution underway, with the company positioned as the alternative being adopted.