Quietly replacing the old way: customers are switching to the company from an entrenched alternative, and the switching
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes customers switching to the company from an entrenched alternative, and that this switching is still in early stages with most potential switchers not yet converted. The transcript discusses private label growth, market share gains, and the company's position. Management mentions that private label has gained unit share for 66 consecutive weeks, and that they are benefiting from macro trends. They talk about retailers investing in private label, and the value proposition. However, the question is about customers switching to the company from an entrenched alternative. The company is a private label manufacturer, so the "entrenched alternative" would be national brands. Management does mention that private label is gaining share, and that they are gaining unit share. But is this described as a substitution that is still in early stages? They say "private label has now gained unit share for 66 consecutive weeks" and that it's a return to long-term trend. They also say "we are at that 20% number now, which is pre-pandemic, we were just below that." So private label share is back to pre-pandemic levels, but not necessarily that most of the potential switchers are not yet converted. The question asks if management conveys that the switching is still in its early stages, with most potential switchers not yet converted. They mention that private label is growing, but they don't explicitly say that the majority of consumers still use national brands and that there is a long runway. They do say "we are at that 20% number now" which is a share level, but they don't quantify the potential. Also, the switching is from national brands to private label, but the company is a private label manufacturer, so they are the beneficiary. However, the question is about customers switching to the company specifically, not just private label in general. Management says "TreeHouse continues to gain unit share" and "we are benefiting from the actions we took last year." But is this a substitution that is still early? They mention that private label has gained share for 66 weeks, but that could be seen as ongoing. They also say "we are at that 20% number now, which is pre-pandemic, we were just below that." So it's back to pre-pandemic levels, but not necessarily that most of the potential is untapped.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| MBLY | Mobileye Global Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-28 | B+ |
| IMAX | IMAX Corporation | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-26 | B+ |
| PFIE | Profire Energy, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-13 | B |
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| BLZE | Backblaze, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-11 | D |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
| TMCI | Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-13 | B+ |
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| ZVIA | Zevia PBC | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-12 | B |
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| RNW | ReNew Energy Global Plc | Q2 2022 | 2021-11-18 | C |
| ILMN | Illumina, Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | A |
| INST | Instructure's | Q4 2017 | 2018-02-12 | B+ |
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| EVBN | Evans Bancorp, Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-06 | B+ |
| BDC | Belden Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-02 | B |
BLKB · Q1 2017 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES Management describes customers switching from entrenched alternatives (legacy hardware systems, older Raiser's Edge versions, standalone point solutions) to Blackbaud's cloud solutions like NXT, with examples of recent replacements and migrations already occurring. They also note that much of the potential remains, as the installed base of legacy methods is still large 25% of subscription revenue, and they describe the opportunity as "really early days" with substantial distance left to run. This fits the criteria of a present-tense substitution pattern in the market, not just future hope. The high retention on their own base (93%) combined with declining maintenance revenue shows the shift is active and ongoing, while new wins against competitors and legacy alternatives are happening now. The TAM of $7 billion with hundreds of thousands of addressable customers reinforces that switching is early-stage relative to the total opportunity. The answer is YES. The question is answered with YES. The question is answered with YES.
BLZE · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES The transcript shows management describing current customer switches from entrenched alternatives (AWS for urlscan.io; Synology NAS/on-prem for Fiture; broader AWS and on-prem users), with these as real, ongoing patterns. They explicitly note that much of the potential remains ("so much of the world's data is still on-premises" and "customers that are inside of AWS and others"), confirming the substitution is early-stage relative to the large installed base. This is conveyed directly in Gleb's responses as a present-tense reality, not merely anticipated. The two examples plus the broader opportunity framing establish a coherent substitution underway, with the company being substituted in. The investor question on percentages and Gleb's reply reinforce the pattern without contradicting the current movement. No single-event or future-only framing applies here. Thus, both conditions are met.
APPS · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES The transcript shows management describing customers shifting from Apple/Google app stores to DT Hub and SingleTap-enabled alternative distribution as an ongoing, early-stage substitution. Bill Stone notes the company has already launched DT Hub with four U.S. operators and is generating revenue today, while highlighting "increasing pressure on the duopoly" and 5 monetization ways for SingleTap that enable publishers to direct-download apps outside traditional stores. He explicitly calls it "very early days and not yet material to our overall results" and "early innings," confirming the installed base of the old way remains large and the switch is just beginning with incremental RPD gains from devices engaging the new platform. This meets the criteria of a present-tense substitution underway, with the company positioned as the alternative being adopted.