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Quietly replacing the old way

Quietly replacing the old way: customers are switching to the company from an entrenched alternative, and the switching

Calls Tested
485
Answered YES
26
Hit Rate
5.4%
rare by design

Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. (ZBH) — this company's answers

NO on the Q2 2017 call 2017-07-30 F
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2017 call → NO我们根据提供的财报电话会议记录来判断。问题问的是：管理层是否描述了客户正在从他们之前依赖的现有替代品转向公司（即取代现有供应商、传统产品或技术等），并且这种转换仍处于早期阶段，大多数潜在转换者尚未转换。 在记录中，管理层提到了“sales recapture”（销售回收），即从之前受影响的客户那里重新获得销售。他们提到由于供应问题，一些客户转向了竞争对手，他们希望重新获得这些业务。例如：“We still see an opportunity to recapture this business, but we expect that this will occur at a slower pace than previously anticipated as a result of the supply delays that I have described.” 以及“We have established focused initiatives to deeply engage with our customers, sales forces and team members in order to more fully meet existing customer demand.” 还有“we are seeing instances where some surgeons are waiting to move their business back to us until they see a full product offering with a steady flow of supply for a period of time.” 这暗示客户之前因为供应问题转向了其他供应商，现在他们希望回来，但需要看到稳定的供应。这确实是一种“切换”现象：客户从竞争对手（替代品）转向公司。但这是“回收”而不是新的转换。而且管理层说“recapture”是机会，但进展缓慢。这似乎是一种正在发生的现象，但管理层没有明确说“大多数潜在转换者尚未转换”，而是说他们正在努力回收。另外，管理层提到“borrowed market share”：“We have described it as the case where surgeons have moved some of their business to a competitor, because of our inability to fully supply them. So we are referring to that as kind of borrowed market share.” 这表示客户已经转向了竞争对手，公司希望他们回来。这确实是一种替代现象：客户从公司转向了竞争对手，现在公司希望他们回来。但问题问的是“客户正在从他们之前依赖的现有替代品转向公司”，即公司是替代者。这里的情况是公司之前失去了客户，现在希望他们回来，所以是客户从竞争对手（替代品）转回公司。这符合“switching to the company”吗？是的，因为客户之前依赖竞争对手，现在可能转回公司。但管理层说“recapture”是机会，但进展缓慢，而且他们还没有完全实现。他们提到“we are in the early stages of getting healthy on supply and then experiencing what that recapture rate looks like.” 这暗示回收还处于早期阶段。但问题要求“customers are currently switching to the company from an entrenched alternative”并且“this switching is still in its early stages, with most of the potential switchers not yet converted”。管理层确实说“early stages of getting healthy on supply”和“recapture rate”尚未完全实现，所以可以认为转换还在早期。但注意：这里的“switching”是客户从竞争对手转回公司，而不是公司从竞争对手那里赢得新客户。但本质上，客户之前依赖竞争对手（因为公司供应问题），现在可能转回公司，所以公司是替代者。然而，管理层没有明确说“大多数潜在转换者尚未转换”，但暗示了回收需要时间。另外，管理层提到“we have clear line of sight to the surgeon level in terms of where we have been gaining business, where we have been losing business”等。但整体上，管理层描述的是由于供应问题，客户流失，现在希望回收，这确实是一种替代现象，但方向是客户从竞争对手转回公司。而且管理层说“we are in the early stages”，所以符合“early stages”。但问题要求“customers are currently switching to the company from an entrenched alternative”——这里“entrenched alternative”是竞争对手，客户之前依赖竞争对手，现在可能转回公司。但管理层没有说客户正在大量转回，而是说他们希望回收，但进展缓慢。所以可能不算“currently switching”而是“potential switching”。管

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Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON — abandoning or displacing an incumbent supplier, a legacy product or technology, an older method, or an established way of doing things in order to adopt what this company sells — AND does management convey that this switching is still in its early stages, with most of the potential switchers not yet converted? Answer YES when management's own words convey, in whatever form fits the business, ONE coherent phenomenon as a present-tense reality: a substitution is underway in the company's market, and this company is the one being substituted IN. Any genuine expression of this counts, and the form varies widely across industries. For example — management describing customers replacing a competitor's or incumbent's product with theirs; customers moving off a legacy technology, material, method, platform, or practice onto the company's; buyers who used to do the work themselves, or do without, now adopting the company's offering instead; customers consolidating onto the company after dropping other vendors; management noting that wins are coming at the direct expense of a named or clearly implied alternative that used to be the default; or management describing that the conversation in its market has shifted from "whether to switch" to "how fast to switch." Two things should come through in management's own voice. First, THE SWITCHING IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING NOW — real customers who have already moved, described as a recurring pattern in current business (won accounts, displaced incumbents, conversions completed, replacements underway), not a hope that switching will someday begin. Second, THE INSTALLED BASE OF THE OLD WAY IS STILL LARGE — management conveys, directly or plainly in substance, that what has switched so far is small relative to what is still out there using the old alternative, so the substitution has substantial distance left to run. Answer NO if management simply reports strong demand, a good quarter, or growth in a market with no incumbent or prior alternative being displaced. NO if the switching is only anticipated, targeted, or described as a future opportunity rather than already occurring. NO if the only evidence is one isolated account win with no sense of a broader substitution pattern. NO if the displacement described is essentially complete, with the old alternative already largely gone. NO if the switching is driven by a one-time event — a single competitor's collapse, a temporary shortage, a forced recall — that management expects to normalize rather than an ongoing substitution. NO if the idea appears only in an analyst's question or characterization that management does not itself affirm. Use only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
CRGO Freightos Limited Q1 2024 2024-05-20 C+
IFS Intercorp Financial Services Inc. Q1 2024 2024-05-14 C+
NICE NICE Ltd. Q4 2023 2024-02-22 B+
APPS Digital Turbine, Inc. Q1 2024 2023-08-08 D
SPT Sprout Social, Inc. Q2 2023 2023-08-04 B+
MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. Q2 2023 2023-07-28 B+
IMAX IMAX Corporation Q2 2023 2023-07-26 B+
PFIE Profire Energy, Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-13 B
TOST Toast, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-02-16 C+
BLZE Backblaze, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-11 D
SIBN SI-BONE, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-07 C+
TMCI Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. Q2 2022 2022-08-13 B+
SGRY Surgery Partners, Inc. Q2 2022 2022-08-02 B+
BIG Big Lots, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-27 F
FLYW Flywire Corporation Q1 2022 2022-05-14 B+
ZVIA Zevia PBC Q1 2022 2022-05-12 B
IRTC iRhythm Technologies, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-07 C+
RELY Remitly Global, Inc. Q4 2021 2022-03-02 B
GTES Gates Industrial Corporation plc Q4 2021 2022-02-07 C+
RNW ReNew Energy Global Plc Q2 2022 2021-11-18 C
ILMN Illumina, Inc. Q1 2018 2018-04-24 A
INST Instructure's Q4 2017 2018-02-12 B+
HOLX Hologic, Inc. Q4 2017 2017-11-08 D
BLKB Blackbaud, Inc. Q1 2017 2017-05-02 B+
EVBN Evans Bancorp, Inc. Q4 2016 2017-02-06 B+
BDC Belden Inc. Q4 2016 2017-02-02 B

How the model reasoned

BLKB · Q1 2017 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES Management describes customers switching from entrenched alternatives (legacy hardware systems, older Raiser's Edge versions, standalone point solutions) to Blackbaud's cloud solutions like NXT, with examples of recent replacements and migrations already occurring. They also note that much of the potential remains, as the installed base of legacy methods is still large 25% of subscription revenue, and they describe the opportunity as "really early days" with substantial distance left to run. This fits the criteria of a present-tense substitution pattern in the market, not just future hope. The high retention on their own base (93%) combined with declining maintenance revenue shows the shift is active and ongoing, while new wins against competitors and legacy alternatives are happening now. The TAM of $7 billion with hundreds of thousands of addressable customers reinforces that switching is early-stage relative to the total opportunity. The answer is YES. The question is answered with YES. The question is answered with YES.
BLZE · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES The transcript shows management describing current customer switches from entrenched alternatives (AWS for urlscan.io; Synology NAS/on-prem for Fiture; broader AWS and on-prem users), with these as real, ongoing patterns. They explicitly note that much of the potential remains ("so much of the world's data is still on-premises" and "customers that are inside of AWS and others"), confirming the substitution is early-stage relative to the large installed base. This is conveyed directly in Gleb's responses as a present-tense reality, not merely anticipated. The two examples plus the broader opportunity framing establish a coherent substitution underway, with the company being substituted in. The investor question on percentages and Gleb's reply reinforce the pattern without contradicting the current movement. No single-event or future-only framing applies here. Thus, both conditions are met.
APPS · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES The transcript shows management describing customers shifting from Apple/Google app stores to DT Hub and SingleTap-enabled alternative distribution as an ongoing, early-stage substitution. Bill Stone notes the company has already launched DT Hub with four U.S. operators and is generating revenue today, while highlighting "increasing pressure on the duopoly" and 5 monetization ways for SingleTap that enable publishers to direct-download apps outside traditional stores. He explicitly calls it "very early days and not yet material to our overall results" and "early innings," confirming the installed base of the old way remains large and the switch is just beginning with incremental RPD gains from devices engaging the new platform. This meets the criteria of a present-tense substitution underway, with the company positioned as the alternative being adopted.

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Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our methodology.