Reporting the counterparty's growth as its own: management explains the company's coming year by narrating what its cust
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management's forward account is substantially about counterparties' own growth/expansion, with the company already inside that growth, and that growth early and large relative to company. Key points from transcript: - Management discusses various markets: consumer, enterprise, automotive. - Consumer: mentions transition from Wi-Fi 6E to Wi-Fi 7, secured design win from Tier 1 cable operator for Wi-Fi 7 CPE, and a large design win with Tier 1 MNO for indoor FWA router expected to ship in Q1. Also mentions working on other opportunities. - Enterprise: inventory overhang, but sees end customer demand growth, EV charging and VSaaS strong, custom products with lead customer going through platform refresh causing delay. - Automotive: inventory corrections, but new products RECON13 and UltramaxGlass5G shipping this quarter, new system integrator in public safety. - Also discusses three product initiatives: Lantern FWA, Lighthouse Smart Repeater, and vehicle networking device. These are new products, not yet shipping (Lantern targeting Q1 ship, Lighthouse end of 2024, vehicle networking Q2 next year). They have early purchase orders for Lantern, but not yet shipped. The question: Does management explain where the company's business is going by narrating what its counterparties are themselves doing and scaling? That is, does a substantial part of management's forward account consist of reporting on the growth, expansion, ramp, adoption, or program build-out of specific customers, partners, etc., that the company already supplies or serves, such that the company's own coming volume is presented as a consequence of those parties' own trajectories? We need to see if management speaks about counterparties' business as part of its own, with the company already inside that growth, and that growth early and large. Looking at the transcript: Management talks about design wins, but those are new wins, not yet shipping. For example, the MNO design win for FWA router expected to begin shipment in Q1. That is a future shipment, not current activity. The company is not yet supplying that. Similarly, the Wi-Fi 7 design win from Tier 1 cable operator - that is a design win, but not yet shipping. The company is bidding or has won, but not yet in production.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMKR | EMCORE Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2023-12-12 | C+ |
| MBLY | Mobileye Global Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-28 | B+ |
| PI | Impinj, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-08 | B+ |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| OOMA | Ooma, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2021-12-02 | B+ |
| ILMN | Illumina, Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | A |
| PLAB | Photronics, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-05-17 | C+ |
| IONS | Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-09 | C |
| FNV | Franco-Nevada Corporation | Q3 2016 | 2016-11-08 | B+ |
| HXL | Hexcel Corporation | Q4 2015 | 2016-01-22 | B+ |
OOMA · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management narrates what its counterparties are doing and scaling, presenting the company's future volume as a consequence of those parties' trajectories.
MBLY · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management narrates what its counterparties are doing and scaling, presenting the company's volume as a consequence of those parties' trajectories.
ILMN · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management narrates what its counterparties are doing and scaling, presenting the company's future as a consequence of those parties' trajectories.