Reporting the counterparty's growth as its own: management explains the company's coming year by narrating what its cust
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2018 call → NOWe need to determine if management explains the company's forward business by narrating what its counterparties are themselves doing and scaling. The key is whether management's forward account is substantially about the growth, expansion, ramp, adoption, or program build-out of specific customers/partners that the company already supplies, and that this is early and large relative to the company. Let's analyze the transcript. The call covers Q1 2018 results. Management discusses HPMC and FRP segments. In HPMC, John Sims discusses strong demand for next-generation jet engine products. He says: "the industry is currently in the early phases of a multi-year production expansion" and "expected airplane build growth and our long-term customer agreements provide a solid foundation." He mentions "production ramp of next-generation jet engines at all of our major engine OEM customers." He also mentions "we are keenly focused on operational excellence... across a wide range of potential industry build rates." He discusses forge products and construction/mining growth. He mentions "we continue to work diligently with our customers" for titanium castings. In the Q&A, Rich Harshman discusses Boeing and Airbus derisking from Russia, and that they have exercised their supply chain including ATI. He says "part of our emergent demand on the mill products side was probably a result of those kind of actions." He also discusses that they have long-term supply agreements for titanium sponge. He mentions that they don't see need to restart Raleigh. He also discusses the fourth isothermal press and that it is based on "the business that we have currently and the rate ramps that are there but also discussions that are ongoing for other opportunities that our customers are talking to us about." He mentions "long-term agreement that we announced with UTC Pratt Whitney" that supports the investment. In the Q&A, when asked about Q2, Rich says "we are currently expecting the mix to be not as rich with new products in the second quarter as we saw in the first quarter" but that's about mix. He also discusses that the third quarter is noisy due to plant shutdowns.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMKR | EMCORE Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2023-12-12 | C+ |
| MBLY | Mobileye Global Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-28 | B+ |
| PI | Impinj, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-08 | B+ |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| OOMA | Ooma, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2021-12-02 | B+ |
| ILMN | Illumina, Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | A |
| PLAB | Photronics, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-05-17 | C+ |
| IONS | Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-09 | C |
| FNV | Franco-Nevada Corporation | Q3 2016 | 2016-11-08 | B+ |
| HXL | Hexcel Corporation | Q4 2015 | 2016-01-22 | B+ |
OOMA · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management narrates what its counterparties are doing and scaling, presenting the company's future volume as a consequence of those parties' trajectories.
MBLY · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management narrates what its counterparties are doing and scaling, presenting the company's volume as a consequence of those parties' trajectories.
ILMN · Q1 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management narrates what its counterparties are doing and scaling, presenting the company's future as a consequence of those parties' trajectories.