Scarcity premium: the thing the company sells is becoming harder to get, and management is letting the shortage do the s
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2016 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that what the company sells is becoming harder for buyers to obtain, and that management is allowing that tightening to work in its favor. The transcript discusses loan growth, competition, and strategy. Management mentions that in wholesale banking, there is lower demand for loans, and they have been selective, losing market share in wholesale due to risk-return considerations. They say: "In terms of wholesale, what’s happening in the wholesale, we’ve lost the market share in that segment, again related to risk and return. The levels of competition there are very high and the demand for loans is very weak. So, we’ve seen a low spread, which have made it not attractive for us to enter into those deals at this time and last time we have seen a little bit of a loss in market share in wholesale." This indicates that they are being selective, not chasing demand, but that is because demand is weak, not because supply is tight. They are not saying that buyers are finding it harder to obtain loans; rather, they are choosing not to lend due to low spreads. That is a choice to not take business, but it's not about scarcity of their product; it's about unattractive pricing. They are not letting a shortage improve terms; they are just not participating. In retail, they are growing loans at double-digit rates, so they are supplying plenty. They mention they have a large customer base and are cross-selling. No indication of scarcity. They also discuss their funding structure and competitive advantages, but not about availability tightening. The question asks: does management convey that what the company sells is becoming harder for buyers to obtain? That would mean loans are harder to get. But they are growing retail loans, and in wholesale they are not lending because of low spreads, not because they can't meet demand. They are not saying that demand exceeds supply; they are saying demand is weak. So it's the opposite: they are not selling as much because demand is weak, not because supply is tight. Thus, the answer is NO. We need to answer only YES or NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRA | ProAssurance Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-11 | D |
| AES | The AES Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-03 | C+ |
| PDS | Precision Drilling Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | B |
| LEGH | Legacy Housing Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-18 | C |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | C+ |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-13 | A |
| UAL | United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-01-18 | B |
| STM | STMicroelectronics NV | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-24 | C+ |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-03 | B+ |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-02 | C+ |
| HPP | Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. | Q4 2015 | 2016-02-25 | C |
LEGH · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management explicitly holding production levels steady to build backlog rather than ramping output, while continuing to hold pricing levels. Duncan Bates states: “We have held pricing levels and held production levels as we continue to build a backlog across the manufacturing plants” and later “we decided, hey, let's keep production where it is and keep building the backlog.
STM · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management describing current shortages and a "stretched supply chain" for their own products (especially Automotive and Power Discrete), with backlogs confirming demand outrunning availability. They explicitly note pricing upside from the fractured supply situation in Power and treat the tightness as a positive dynamic rather than an urgent problem to fix.
ALL · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management explicitly restricting new business growth in unprofitable states (California, New York, New Jersey down 75% in new applications) and describing this as part of the profit improvement plan that is working in their favor by improving margins and allowing selective removal of restrictions only where target returns are achieved.