Scarcity premium: the thing the company sells is becoming harder to get, and management is letting the shortage do the s
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2021 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that what the company sells is becoming harder for buyers to obtain, and that management is allowing that tightening to work in its favor. The company sells robots (Roomba, Braava) and accessories, plus subscription services. From the transcript: They mention supply chain issues, component shortages, shipping delays. They say they had to adjust revenue outlook due to component availability and shipping issues. They mention "unfulfilled orders" and "product supply constraints." They say "we expect improved supply will translate into a much stronger top-line performance in the second half of next year." They talk about "component and availability challenges" and "longer shipping time-frames, delays in shipping." But is this about buyers competing for the company's own scarce output? The shortage is of components they buy, which constrains their shipments. That is a shortage of things they BUY, not of their own product being scarce relative to demand. They are not saying that buyers are waiting or that they are being selective. They are trying to fulfill orders but can't due to component shortages. They are not raising prices or being selective; they are adjusting promotional activity and pricing, but that's due to cost increases, not scarcity of their product. They mention "we have been managing through a range of issues that have impacted our revenue and profitability expectations." They are not letting scarcity improve their terms; they are trying to mitigate costs. They also mention "we expect a higher revenue growth rate in '22 than in 2021, as we anticipate improved supply will translate into a much stronger top-line performance." That indicates they are trying to increase supply, not let scarcity work for them. Thus, the answer is NO. The shortage is of components they buy, and they are working to fix it, not leveraging it. Answer: NO
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRA | ProAssurance Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-11 | D |
| AES | The AES Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-03 | C+ |
| PDS | Precision Drilling Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | B |
| LEGH | Legacy Housing Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-18 | C |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | C+ |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-13 | A |
| UAL | United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-01-18 | B |
| STM | STMicroelectronics NV | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-24 | C+ |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-03 | B+ |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-02 | C+ |
| HPP | Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. | Q4 2015 | 2016-02-25 | C |
LEGH · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management explicitly holding production levels steady to build backlog rather than ramping output, while continuing to hold pricing levels. Duncan Bates states: “We have held pricing levels and held production levels as we continue to build a backlog across the manufacturing plants” and later “we decided, hey, let's keep production where it is and keep building the backlog.
STM · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management describing current shortages and a "stretched supply chain" for their own products (especially Automotive and Power Discrete), with backlogs confirming demand outrunning availability. They explicitly note pricing upside from the fractured supply situation in Power and treat the tightness as a positive dynamic rather than an urgent problem to fix.
ALL · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management explicitly restricting new business growth in unprofitable states (California, New York, New Jersey down 75% in new applications) and describing this as part of the profit improvement plan that is working in their favor by improving margins and allowing selective removal of restrictions only where target returns are achieved.