Scarcity premium: the thing the company sells is becoming harder to get, and management is letting the shortage do the s
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2021 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that what the company sells is becoming harder for buyers to obtain, and that management is allowing that tightening to work in its favor. Key points from transcript: - Management discusses supply chain issues, but those are about inputs (chemicals, labor, freight) constraining their own production. That is a shortage of things they buy, not their own product being scarce relative to demand. However, they also mention that they are holding higher inventory to meet anticipated demand, and they are rebuilding inventory. That suggests they are trying to supply, not restrict. - They mention that in Bedding, volume was down due to chemical shortages, labor availability, and transportation issues constraining U.S. mattress production, impacting component demand and their finished goods production. That is about their own production being constrained by inputs, not about buyers competing for their scarce output. - They talk about passing through price increases due to raw material inflation. That is about cost pass-through, not about scarcity-driven pricing power. - They mention that they walked away from low-margin Open Coil business, but that was a deliberate choice to improve profitability, not necessarily about scarcity. - They mention that in Automotive, volumes are down due to semiconductor shortages, but that is an industry issue affecting their customers' production, not their own product being scarce. - They mention that they are making short-term investments to attract and retain labor, and holding higher inventory to meet demand. That suggests they are trying to supply more, not restrict. - They do not describe a situation where buyers are competing for their limited output, or where they are letting customers wait, or being selective about which business to take due to scarcity. They are passing through costs, but that is not the same as scarcity-driven pricing power. - They mention that they are holding higher inventory as a precautionary measure for a rod mill outage, but that is about their own operations, not about buyers facing scarcity. - They do not convey that their product is becoming harder to obtain; rather, they are facing input shortages that constrain their ability to ship, but they are working to overcome those constraints.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRA | ProAssurance Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-11 | D |
| AES | The AES Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-03 | C+ |
| PDS | Precision Drilling Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | B |
| LEGH | Legacy Housing Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-18 | C |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | C+ |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-13 | A |
| UAL | United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-01-18 | B |
| STM | STMicroelectronics NV | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-24 | C+ |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-03 | B+ |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-02 | B |
| RACE | Ferrari N.V. | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-02 | C+ |
| HPP | Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. | Q4 2015 | 2016-02-25 | C |
LEGH · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management explicitly holding production levels steady to build backlog rather than ramping output, while continuing to hold pricing levels. Duncan Bates states: “We have held pricing levels and held production levels as we continue to build a backlog across the manufacturing plants” and later “we decided, hey, let's keep production where it is and keep building the backlog.
STM · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management describing current shortages and a "stretched supply chain" for their own products (especially Automotive and Power Discrete), with backlogs confirming demand outrunning availability. They explicitly note pricing upside from the fractured supply situation in Power and treat the tightness as a positive dynamic rather than an urgent problem to fix.
ALL · Q3 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that WHAT THE COMPANY SELLS IS BECOMING HARDER FOR BUYERS TO OBTAIN — availability tightening — AND that management is allowing that tightening to work in the c...YES The transcript shows management explicitly restricting new business growth in unprofitable states (California, New York, New Jersey down 75% in new applications) and describing this as part of the profit improvement plan that is working in their favor by improving margins and allowing selective removal of restrictions only where target returns are achieved.