Self-authored recovery: the company got itself out of the ditch, and management can name what it fixed
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys both halves: (1) a real bad stretch acknowledged with turn already visible, and (2) the company itself is the stated cause of the turn. Scan the transcript. Mark Bristow discusses various issues. He mentions setbacks: "we did have some setbacks, notably, the slower ramp up of the expansion of Pueblo Viejo" - that's a negative. But he also says "Otherwise, there was a lot of good news during the quarter, particularly, the progress we are making with our other growth projects, La Moana and RekoDiq, and a strong financial performance." So not a broad weak period. He also mentions Veladero was stressed earlier but now doing well. But overall, the company is performing well. He talks about production improvements from quarter to quarter. He says "Gold and copper production were both up on the previous quarter and have been up quarter one to quarter two, quarter two to quarter three." So they are seeing improvement. But is the company emerging from a genuinely weak or difficult stretch? The transcript mentions some specific issues: the Pueblo Viejo ramp-up issues, and also mentions fatalities, and some other challenges. But the overall tone is that they are strong. He says "strong financial performance." He also says "Barrick has continued the very pleasing trend" etc. So does management convey that they went through a genuinely poor period? They acknowledge setbacks but they also say "we don't manage Barrick quarter-by-quarter" and they are confident. They also talk about "consistent performer" for Africa. They don't seem to describe a broad difficult stretch for the whole company. They describe specific issues but overall they are performing well. Also, the turn is already visible? They say production is up quarter over quarter, and they expect further improvement. But the improvement is partly due to their own actions? For example, at Veladero, they cut back mine plan, new management team did excellent job, now set to achieve above top end of guidance. That's a specific self-help action. At Turquoise Ridge, they had successful turnaround. At Pueblo Viejo, they have issues but they are fixing. But is the overarching narrative that the company is emerging from a weak stretch? They don't say "we had a bad year and now we are improving." Instead, they say they had some setbacks but overall strong performance.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFIX | Stitch Fix, Inc. | Q3 2024 | 2024-06-04 | C+ |
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-05 | C+ |
| KOPN | Kopin Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-14 | C+ |
| GPRE | Green Plains Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-07 | F |
| QTRX | Quanterix Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-07 | B |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | C+ |
| OPAD | Offerpad Solutions Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C |
| THS | TreeHouse Foods, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-08 | B+ |
| INGN | Inogen, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-05 | F |
| SWK | Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-04 | D |
| BGS | B&G Foods, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-28 | C+ |
| PRPO | Precipio, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-19 | D |
| CLMT | Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-16 | C+ |
| FOSL | Fossil Group, Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-08 | C |
| AVT | Avnet, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-01-25 | B |
| PII | Polaris Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-24 | C+ |
| CAG | Conagra Brands, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2016-12-22 | C+ |
| TGI | Triumph Group, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2016-11-03 | C+ |
| MAT | Mattel, Inc. | Q3 2016 | 2016-10-19 | C |
| GIS | General Mills, Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2016-06-29 | B+ |
MAT · Q3 2016 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that the company is emerging from a genuinely WEAK OR DIFFICULT STRETCH OF ITS OWN — and attribute the improvement now underway PRIMARILY TO SPECIFIC THINGS THE...NO The transcript shows management acknowledging revenue challenges this year (Disney Princess loss, Monster High, FX, mix) and noting progress like positive POS excluding Disney and shipping alignment. However, it does not clearly convey a completed "genuinely weak or difficult stretch" from which they are emerging with a visible turnaround already underway.
NC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that the company is emerging from a genuinely WEAK OR DIFFICULT STRETCH OF ITS OWN — and attribute the improvement now underway PRIMARILY TO SPECIFIC THINGS THE...
KOPN · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that the company is emerging from a genuinely WEAK OR DIFFICULT STRETCH OF ITS OWN — and attribute the improvement now underway PRIMARILY TO SPECIFIC THINGS THE...