Self-authored recovery: the company got itself out of the ditch, and management can name what it fixed
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that the company is emerging from a genuinely weak or difficult stretch of its own, and attributes the improvement primarily to specific things the company itself did or built, rather than outside conditions. From the transcript: Bart Shuldman, CEO, says: "Clearly, I cannot be more pleased with a fourth quarter results, or with the trajectory of the business as we enter 2023." He mentions total revenue up 61% in Q4, casino and gaming up 123%, FST recurring up 14%. For full year, revenue up 48% to $58M, highest since 2015. He talks about FST market, casino and gaming market. He mentions "we began to pick up market share from customers around the world due to our competitors inability to supply customers with their printers." That is an outside factor (competitor's inability). But he also mentions "we began to add an additional production line in the third quarter based on slot manufacturers demand and our ability to get the needed parts in electronics to build our printer." That is company action. He also mentions "we then began to install a fourth production line in the fourth quarter." So they built capacity. He also talks about FST: "we're currently working with a number of large international QSR Restaurant Brands on testing and implementing our labeling solution" and "we are already expecting the large QSR to start coming online in the second half of this year" - that's future. He mentions "Our expanded sales force has seen the restaurant market open back up for us" - that's outside? But also "we've just gone into fill the pipeline with new restaurant opportunities." He mentions "we began selling our FST terminal in 2019 right before the unfortunate event of the pandemic and lockdowns" - so they had a product but pandemic hurt. He says "we found success in the grocery aisle and in C-stores" - that's company success. He mentions "our BOHA! terminal with our labeling only software provided an efficient and productive way" - that's their product. He also mentions "we continue to see great traction with a number of valuations currently underway across some well-known international brands" - future. He gives guidance for 2023: revenue $70-72M, adjusted EBITDA $5.2-5.4M. Steve DeMartino, CFO, discusses results.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFIX | Stitch Fix, Inc. | Q3 2024 | 2024-06-04 | C+ |
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-05 | C+ |
| KOPN | Kopin Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-14 | C+ |
| GPRE | Green Plains Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-07 | F |
| QTRX | Quanterix Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-07 | B |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | C+ |
| OPAD | Offerpad Solutions Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C |
| THS | TreeHouse Foods, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-08 | B+ |
| INGN | Inogen, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-05 | F |
| SWK | Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-04 | D |
| BGS | B&G Foods, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-28 | C+ |
| PRPO | Precipio, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-19 | D |
| CLMT | Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-16 | C+ |
| FOSL | Fossil Group, Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-08 | C |
| AVT | Avnet, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-01-25 | B |
| PII | Polaris Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-24 | C+ |
| CAG | Conagra Brands, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2016-12-22 | C+ |
| TGI | Triumph Group, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2016-11-03 | C+ |
| MAT | Mattel, Inc. | Q3 2016 | 2016-10-19 | C |
| GIS | General Mills, Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2016-06-29 | B+ |
MAT · Q3 2016 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that the company is emerging from a genuinely WEAK OR DIFFICULT STRETCH OF ITS OWN — and attribute the improvement now underway PRIMARILY TO SPECIFIC THINGS THE...NO The transcript shows management acknowledging revenue challenges this year (Disney Princess loss, Monster High, FX, mix) and noting progress like positive POS excluding Disney and shipping alignment. However, it does not clearly convey a completed "genuinely weak or difficult stretch" from which they are emerging with a visible turnaround already underway.
NC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that the company is emerging from a genuinely WEAK OR DIFFICULT STRETCH OF ITS OWN — and attribute the improvement now underway PRIMARILY TO SPECIFIC THINGS THE...
KOPN · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that the company is emerging from a genuinely WEAK OR DIFFICULT STRETCH OF ITS OWN — and attribute the improvement now underway PRIMARILY TO SPECIFIC THINGS THE...