Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2016 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks: does management convey that deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago, so that each new instance of essentially the same business is worth more to the company than the last? We need to look for a comparison against the company's own recent past, already real and recurring, and early stage. Scan the transcript for any mention of deal size, project size, lease size, etc. Management discusses various projects: Torrey Plaza, Oregon Square, Waikele, Hassalo, City Center Bellevue, Torrey Point, etc. They talk about leasing activity, renewals, new leases. But do they say that the size of individual leases or projects is increasing? For example, they mention that at City Center Bellevue, they have 15 floors expiring, and they've renewed or backfilled 7.5 floors. They don't say the size of each lease is larger. They mention rent increases, but that's price per square foot, not size of the deal. They mention at Waikele, they have a signed LOI with a national grocer for the space vacated by Sports Authority. That's a single lease, not necessarily larger than previous ones. They also mention Kmart going dark, and they are repositioning that building. They don't say the new tenants are taking larger spaces than before. They mention Oregon Square: they are in active lease negotiations with a full building tenant for one existing building, and they are finalists for a build-to-suit for another. That could be larger than previous leases? But they don't compare to past. They mention Hassalo: they lowered occupancy expectations, but that's about occupancy, not size of leases. They mention Torrey Point: they are decreasing yield due to higher tenant improvements, but not about deal size. They mention acquisitions: they are looking for deals, but not that they are getting larger. The question is specifically about successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. For example, if they say "our new leases are averaging larger square footage than before" or "we are now signing leases for entire buildings whereas before we signed for floors." I don't see that.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.