Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. Look for comparisons against own past, already real and recurring, early stage. Scan transcript for mentions of deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, programs. Management talks about productivity, innovation, growth platforms. They mention expansions, capacity, etc. But do they say that the size of individual deals/orders/projects is escalating? They mention "we have now approved the scope for the first 2 years of the program, encompassing 18 manufacturing facilities." That's about internal program. They mention "we are continuing to advance 1ADM" etc. They mention "we announced expansions of our alternative protein capabilities" etc. They mention "we completed our alternative protein expansion in Serbia" etc. They mention "we continue to expect our joint venture crush and refining facility in North Dakota to be operational by this year’s harvest." That's a project. But is there any statement about the size of new orders, contracts, deals, customers, etc. being larger than before? They talk about "strong win rates" and "pipeline" but not about size escalation. They mention "we have a robust plan" but not about unit size. They mention "we are looking at multiple other pathways" etc. No. They mention "we are continuing to explore opportunities around precision fermentation" - that's future. They mention "we have now approved the scope for the first 2 years of the program, encompassing 18 manufacturing facilities." That's about internal productivity program, not about customer deals. They mention "we are planning $1 billion in opportunistic buybacks" - not relevant. They mention "we expect 10% plus constant currency OP growth from Nutrition" - that's growth, not size escalation. They mention "we have a strong playbook" etc. No mention of deals getting bigger. They mention "we are continuing to expand our destination marketing footprint" - that's geographic expansion, not size per deal. They mention "we are also planning to have an improvement in our process volumes" - volume. They mention "we are going to have Spiritwood online in Q4" - that's a project. No comparison of size of engagements. Thus answer NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.