Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks: does management convey that deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago, so that each new instance of essentially the same business is worth more to the company than the last? We need to look for evidence in the transcript. The transcript is from Advanced Energy Industries Q2 2023 earnings call. Management discusses various markets: semiconductor, industrial/medical, data center, telecom. They talk about design wins, new products, etc. Key points: They mention "robust design win activity" and "record number of design wins in 2023". But that is about number of wins, not size. They talk about new product launches and customer engagement. They mention "we expect to secure multiple edge and deposition design wins over the next 18 months" for new products. That is about future wins, not necessarily larger size. They talk about industrial/medical: "we won major designs in Electrosurgery, Imaging, and Life Science applications." But no mention of size escalation. They talk about data center: "Sales to several hyperscale customers grew sequentially fueled by demand for AI processing capability." That is about volume, not size per deal. They talk about backlog normalization. No mention of average order size increasing. They talk about design win pipeline growing. But that is about number of opportunities. The question specifically asks about "successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size". I see no mention of that. Management does not say that the average deal size is increasing, that customers are starting at larger scope, that follow-on orders are larger, etc. They talk about record revenue in some segments, but that could be from volume. They mention "we are on track to generate a record number of design wins in 2023" - that is count, not size. They mention "we have already secured our first design win and a cryogenic edge application" for a new product - that is a first, not escalation. They mention "we expanded our already strong position in older node processes by securing additional wins in ion implant applications" - again, wins, not size.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.