Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2018 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. Look for comparisons against own past, already real and recurring, early stage. In the transcript, management discusses lithium supply agreements, capacity expansions, and customer commitments. They mention that for 2021 they are at goal of 80% volume secured, and for 2025 they are ahead of schedule. They talk about accelerating capacity at Kemerton to 60,000 metric tons from initial 40,000. They also mention that they are adjusting capital project planning accordingly. However, is this about deal size escalation? They are talking about volume commitments and capacity expansions. They say "we are right on schedule for 2021 commitments and well ahead of schedule on 2025 volume commitments." That suggests they are securing more volume earlier, but not necessarily that each individual deal is larger. They also mention that the average sales price for committed minimum volumes in 2021 and 2025 are equal to or greater than 2018 average. That's about price, not size. They also discuss that they are seeing acceleration in demand for battery grade lithium hydroxide, and they are adjusting capacity. But is there a comparison of the size of individual contracts now versus before? They don't explicitly say "our new contracts are larger than our old ones." They talk about securing volumes for 2021 and 2025, but that's about future commitments, not necessarily that each new contract is bigger. They also mention that they are in negotiations for volumes well in excess of their nameplate capacity. That could imply they are getting more demand, but not necessarily that each deal is larger. The question asks: "does management convey that the deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago?" There is no explicit statement like that. They talk about expanding capacity, but that's about their own production, not about the size of each customer commitment. They mention that they are accelerating a portion of additional capacity at Kemerton, but that's about their own project size, not about the size of customer orders.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.